Yesterday, the Dutch Central
Bureau for Statistics presented two new research results.
The economic situation for
October and the manufacturers’ price development until September.
Here are the important data
from both investigations.
Analysis October:
 |
| Overview economic situation (www.cbs.nl)Click to enlarge |
In the course of October,
new data have become available for all monthly indicators. The distribution of
the indicators across the quadrants changed somewhat. Household consumption
moved back from the yellow to the red quadrant.
The Tracer shows more serious downturns at the end of
October relative to the end of September. Within the red quadrant, orders,
producer confidence, consumer confidence and unemployment moved considerably
downwards. In the orange quadrant, manufacturing output moved downwards and
somewhat to the left. The Tracer also shows an improvement. In the red
quadrant, the capital market interest rate moved upwards and to the right.
At the end of October, the heart of the scatter in the
Tracer is located in the red quadrant (indicating recession). Eight of the
fifteen indicators are in the red quadrant, three in the yellow, two in the
green and two in the orange quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red
quadrant is below their long-term average and slowing down. The growth rate of
indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term average, but
accelerating.
The growth rate of the indicators in the green
quadrant is above their long-term average and accelerating. The growth rate of
indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term
average, but slowing down.
The above standing chart (courtesy
of www.cbs.nl) is actually quite hard to read.
At least for me it was, initially. Shortly summarized. The upper right quadrant
(increasing and above trend) is ‘good’, the lower left quadrant (decreasing and
below trend) is ‘bad’.
Although Exports, Temp jobs
and to a lesser degree Bankruptcies, Manufacturing, Jobs, Vacancies and Fixed
capital formation look all right, there is a definite trend going on towards
the lower left quadrant of the chart.
Though the situation is not as bad yet
as in January 2009, the trend is worsening. For a better illustration, please
have a look at the site of the Dutch CBS (by clicking the link), where this
chart can be seen as a running chart.
This chart definitely
predicts bad news for the coming months and I would not be surprised if the
economic downturn in 2012 will be worse and (much) longer lasting than in 2009.
As I stated many times before: in The Netherlands we didn’t feel much pain yet
of the biggest crisis since 1929. Now it might be that the pain is coming after all.
Selling prices in Dutch manufacturing industry were
nearly 10% higher in September 2011 than in September 2010. The price increase
is the same as in August.
Manufacturing prices rose across the board relative to
September 2010. With 31%, prices of refined petroleum products increased most
notably. The increase was slightly more substantial than in August.
Manufacturers in the chemical industry (15%) and manufacturers of food products
(9%) also charged much higher prices for their products than in September
2010.
Compared to one month previously, prices rose by 0.6%.
The price increase on the domestic market was less substantial than the price
increase on the foreign market.
Factory
gate prices
 |
| Manufacturing prices YoY (www.cbs..nl) Click to enlarge |
If you look at the aforementioned
chart, it seems like we are in a period of relative stabilizing that already
lasts for more than a year. But sometimes it is good to look at data in its
context. Luckily, the CBS offers this possibility by storing the raw data since
2000. And if you put that in a chart, you suddenly get a whole different
picture (all data in the following chart, courtesy of CBS).
 |
| Manufacturing prices (2000-2011): www.cbs.nl |
By looking at this
data, you see how strong the manufacturing prices have risen, since the trough of March 2009, caused by the economic crisis and you also see that the current price level is
substantially higher than at the peak before the start of this crisis.
Taking this into
consideration, I would not be surprised if we would witness another steep
decline of manufacturing prices very soon. The fact that the European and
Chinese economies are stalling and the fact that the US is again spending its
savings, could mean the start of a crazy ride in my opinion.
Eventually this
could lead to even lower prices than in March 2009.
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