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Wednesday, 14 May 2014

An analysis of the Royal BAM Group ($BAMNB)

Management Summary
  • Large and successful Dutch building company with an impressive building portfolio and interesting specialties;
  • The mission and strategy of the company, coming from the annual report are sensible by itself, but quite grandiloquent. Besides that, these are not likely to yield quick gains and a quick improvement of the cash flow position. Being 'better than your competition' is what every company desires and therefore not exactly a winning strategy.
  • During the last few years, Royal BAM had a negative cash flow, coming out of operations. This could lead to a liquidity squeeze in the near future, which is dangerous for the company as a whole.
  • Customers of BAM seem to be strapped for cash, which might lead to another negative cash flow in 2014;
  • Domestic markets and industries yet extremely challenging and the chances for rapid improvements are dim; 
  • Investors should invest extremely cautious, as the situation in the market might only improve as soon as 2015;
  • Renowned hedgefund AKO Capital LLP is holding a short position of 1.16%;
Introduction 

The Dutch Royal BAM Group nv ($BAMNB) is an internationally active building company, which operates in five home markets. The following snippets come from the profile on the corporate website of BAM:

Royal BAM Group nv is a successful European construction group and unites operating companies in five home markets with the administrative centre in the Netherlands and it is listed at NYSE Euronext Amsterdam. BAM is active in the sectors construction and mechanical and electrical services, civil engineering, property and public private partnerships.

BAM has top market positions in the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Germany. The Group undertakes specialist construction and civil engineering projects in niche markets worldwide.

With around 25,000 employees, BAM is responsible for the implementation of thousands of projects every year.


Balance Sheet, Profits and Losses and Cash Flow (annual data 2013)


Royal BAM Balance Sheet from the Annual Report 2013
Data courtesy of: Royal BAM
Click to Enlarge

Balance Sheet

Assets

What stands out is the growing number in the receivables of Private-Public Partnerships (PPP Receivables): to 406 million in 2013 from 288 million in 2011.

This number has soared by 40% in just two years, which could point to the fact that the company is forced to pre-finance / co-finance (semi-governmental) projects. This is definitely a risk factor for operations, as the investment risk lies with BAM initially, while the gains will only be received in the future, after the project is finished successfully.

Since 2011, there has been a dramatic drop in cash and cash equivalents: to 548 million from 940 million. This is caused by the series of negative cash flows that the company had during the last few years.

This can be considered a continuity risk, as it leads to a liquidity squeeze.

Equity and Liabilities

The share capital has increased to €833 million from €735 million in 2012. This has strongly improved the solvability of BAM in comparison with 2012. 

However, with 6.38, BAM still has a substantial leverage in its balance sheet and consequently only a very moderate solvability of 121%.

Two other things that stand out are the negative reserves of 411 million and the soaring provisions (to 100 million from 59 million in 2012), which might indicate past and expected future losses.

Royal BAM Consolidate Income Statement
from the Annual Report 2013
Data courtesy of: Royal BAM
Click to Enlarge
Profits and Losses

In 2013, the company squeezed out a profit of €47 million, compared to the €183 million loss in 2012. That is a good result, probably caused by diminished expenses and reduced personnel numbers.

Also the substantial decrease of the impairments to €42 million from €366 million is a good achievement. All in all the company went through a substantial cost reduction, enabling last year's profit.

Still, a P/E ratio of 5.6% is far from impressive and it seems that there is not much room for quick improvements yet, as the domestic markets remain challenging.

Royal BAM Consolidate Cash Flow Statement
from the Annual Report 2013
Data courtesy of: Royal BAM
Click to Enlarge
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement

What stands out here is the negative net cash flow from operations;  already for the second year in a row. In other words: the amount of cash getting out of the company is structurally bigger than the cash amount returning to the company.

For me this is a worrisome development, as this could lead to a liquidity squeeze in the near future. The provisions and the negative changes in working capital are the main burners of Royal BAM's cash capital.

Corporate Strategy

Mission

By 2020, BAM aims to be a ‘10+ business’, a company which achieves more than 10 per cent Return on Capital Employed (ROCE), that operates in the European construction sector’s Top 10 and with a turnover of more than €10 billion.

Ernst: This Mission seems very ambitious, when we take the current economic conundrum into consideration. In my humble opinion, it is too ambitious and too far stretched from the current reality.

Market Developments

BAM’s growth strategy is based on the expectation that the Group will be able to benefit from three global market developments in the long term (macrotrends):

1. Increasing urbanisation and demand for sustainable solutions are leading to more complex construction assignments.

2. Limited financial resources and cost optimisation are leading clients and users to a focus on ‘life cycle costing’ and therefore to an increasing demand for service provision throughout the entire life of a project, from initiative and financing to management and maintenance.

3. The world over, the emerging economies demand infrastructure projects, which are often complex in nature. Successful access to these markets can be gained by contributing knowledge and experience.

Ernst: By itself these are sensible targets. However, these are not targets which will provide strongly improved gains at short term. The company admits that itself. 

Especially, the success of the emerging markets and economies has come under jeopardy, as a consequence of withdrawn investments and societal / political unrest. This might remove the foundation below one of the main goals (no. 3) for the future of BAM. 

On top of that: BAM's main problem is not the future in the long run. It is dealing with the now, which might be extremely difficult.

Four strategic objectives

By 2020, BAM is aiming to be recognised and identified as one of the leading sustainable construction companies in Europe. In order to realise this mission, the Group has formulated four objectives for the 2013-2015 strategic period.

1. ‘Best in class’ construction projects

BAM projects are exemplary projects – technologically, organisationally, and in terms of their results. 

BAM is continuously improving its operational performance, a process made possible by involving all employees in the implementation of these improvements, tighter controls, better risk management, implementing lean, BIM, sustainability and safety initiatives, and by continuing the national and Group-wide purchasing programmes. The Group will also improve its financial results by further reducing its real estate portfolio and by optimising its working capital.

Ernst: This is a sensible strategy, but nothing out of the ordinary.

2. Leadership in complex multidisciplinary projects

BAM supports the success of its group companies through better internal co-operation and by co-ordinating operating processes. 

This stimulates multidisciplinary projects. BAM fills in the ‘white spaces’ on its activity matrix in its home markets in order to be able to offer multidisciplinary services everywhere. 

BAM is extending its activities from Germany into Switzerland, and from Belgium into Luxembourg.

Ernst: Taking into consideration the problems at especially the home markets The Netherlands and Ireland, expansion within Europe seems a sensible strategy. 

However, in these countries and markets the company might encounter
stiff competition from local competitors and it will take a while before these new operations will actually yield revenues and profits.


3. Expanding activities in the ‘built asset’ process chain

BAM develops and sets up business units, or ‘asset management service units’, which will be equipped to run and maintain projects. Led by specialised management teams, they will gradually grow, firstly as part of PPP projects, but also through local acquisitions and local expansion. 

In addition, BAM will introduce energy and water-efficient concepts to be used in non-residential and residential building projects, but also in civil
and technical engineering projects.

Ernst: This is an extremely capital intensive strategy, as it demands enormous investments for the future. 

Besides that, you could argue whether it is sensible for Royal BAM to partially change from a building company into an asset management company. 

Although such assets could yield stable cash flows in the future, this strategy turns the company into a kind of bank, which makes it vulnerable to depreciation of real estate and investments in the future and to losses on unsuccessful projects, which do not come to maturity.

4. Occupying niche positions in selected growth markets

The Group strengthens the current BAM International organisation, improves processes and systems and invests in strategic equipment. BAM will focus on four growth areas in which BAM occupies a good starting point: the Middle East, Australia, Asia Pacific and Africa. Finally, BAM will continue to seek more intensive relationships with global customers in the oil and gas,
mining, and industrial sectors. 

Ernst: Sensible strategy. Growth in Europe will remain cautious in the coming years and then it is a wise thing to expand exactly those operations, in which you excel as a company.

Operational environment

The building industry has gone through a number of extremely tough years. 
  • The market for residential real estate is still very awkward in countries like Ireland and The Netherlands and – to a lesser degree – in Belgium.
  • Also the markets for commercial construction and civil engineering are still extremely difficult in Ireland and the other countries.
With data from Eurostat, I created a number of charts, based upon the most important key figures with respect to the building and construction industry, as this is the industry in which BAM is active:

Housing Price index 2008 - 2014 in
the markets in which BAM is active
Data courtesy of: Eurostat
Chart copyright of: Ernst's Economy
Click to enlarge
If we look at the housing price index for the countries in which Royal BAM is operational, the housing prices in The Netherlands and especially Ireland have plummeted. 

This has happened, due to the implosion of the massive pre-crisis housing bubbles, which took place in especially these two countries. This implosion did not only have an effect upon the prices of existing dwellings, but of course also on those of the newly-built houses. This means that margins have deteriorated in these countries. 

While the price drops have seemingly come to an end in Ireland these days, further price drops can still be expected in The Netherlands.

Since 2010, the United Kingdom is in a situation of very cautious price increases. In my opinion, these increases have mainly been spurred by soaring prices in the greater London area. However, prices in the other parts of the country will probably remain stable or might even change into a slightly negative direction.

With an average price increase of roughly 10-12% in six years, Belgium and Germany showed the best results in Royal BAM's home markets.

Construction index 2008 - 2013
in the markets in which BAM is active
Data courtesy of: Eurostat
Chart copyright of: Ernst's Economy
Click to enlarge

Built buildings index 2008 - 2013
in the markets in which BAM is active
Data courtesy of: Eurostat
Chart copyright of: Ernst's Economy
Click to enlarge
The construction index and the built buildings index (no data available for The Netherlands) show the effects of the enormous building slump in Ireland, where the building industry seemingly has been shipwrecked. 

Also in Ireland, however, there are signs of a slight recovery and cautious growth, but the situation of 2008 will probably never return anymore. This makes the Irish market a very awkward one for Royal BAM. 

Of the other countries, only Germany managed to increase its index. The other remaining countries simply didn’t.

Civil construction index 2008 - 2013
in the markets in which BAM is active
Data courtesy of: Eurostat
Chart copyright of: Ernst's Economy
Click to enlarge
The Civil Construction index shows that the UK, Germany and Belgium have seemingly turned to good old Keynesian stimulus in 2009. The Irish government was not capable of doing so until 2011, due to its  awkward financial position. 

However, all these countries have seemingly stabilized their civil construction programs since 2012, meaning that it will supposedly be quite hard for Royal BAM to earn extra revenues in this particular market.


Gross Value Added of the construction industry
(period 
2008 - 2010 ) in the markets in which BAM is active
Data courtesy of: Eurostat
Chart copyright of: Ernst's Economy
Click to enlarge
The "gross value added" of the construction industry as a percentage of the total GDP has dropped in all countries and it is shipwrecked in Ireland: from 7.7% to 5.5% in 1.5 years. No newer data is available, unfortunately.

Conclusion

Royal BAM is active in an extremely difficult industry, in which growth perspective is still very awkward. Especially the markets in Ireland and The Netherlands will undoubtedly be problem childs for the management of BAM, and although Belgium, The United Kingdom and Germany are doing slightly better, it is much too early to raise the flag.

BAM has one advantage upon its main competitors, in my humble opinion. Its specialties in niche markets - football stadiums, other sports venues and other specialty buildings – give the company perhaps a competitive edge.

I doubt, however, whether this is enough to keep the whole company writing black figures in the coming year(s), like it did in 2013.

Also its competitor Ballast Nedam ($BALNE) is active in these specialty markets and this company suffered an operational loss in 2013. 

Achievements of the company in the past period

Royal BAM has been involved in (among others) the following projects and assignments during the last quarter:

AM, the project development branch of Dutch building company BAM will start an online mortgage platform…

FC Feyenoord decided to offer the project in Rotterdam-South to BAM. The capacity of the stadium will be increased to 70,000 spectators from 50,000. The fundamental refurbishment will cost approximately €200 million.

Royal BAM will get an assignment (through its subsidiaries) as a part of a joint-venture to build a fifth sea sluice in Brunsbuttel Germany. The joint-venture will build a 360 meter long sea sluice between the river Elbe and the channel to Kiel. The assignment with a total amount of €360 million and an expected building period of seven years, is handed out by the government service Water and Shipping Executive Brunsbuttel (i.e. Wasser- und Schifffahrtsamt Brunsbuttel).

Royal BAM Group has received an assignment in the UK for the construction of the infrastructure for a new residential area. Subsidiary BAM Nuttal is assigned as main contractor for the project, order by Trenport (Peters Village) ltd and the Britse Homes and Communities Agency.


Issues concerning the company in the past period
The contracts for the building and exploitation of this state-of-the-art multifunctional sports complex should have been signed before April 1st 2014, as this was the official deadline for the completion of the tender offer. 

However, this deadline has already been reluctantly postponed, for an undisclosed amount of time, by the principals NOC/NSF (i.e. Dutch Olympic Committee) and Dutch skating union KNSB.

When I called Icedôme founder Folkert Buiter around April 1st, he stated that the definitive confirmation of the contracts should be "a matter of a few days". 

The fact that the contracts are still not signed, now that we are one-and-a-half months later, seems to point at serious difficulties in the negotiation process. Unfortunately, I consider that there is a substantial chance that the whole €200+ million Almere Icedôme project might be shipwrecked after all.

The order for refurbishing the Thialf stadium (the main competitor of the Icedôme) in Heerenveen has already been awarded to BAM's main competitor in this area, Ballast Nedam. 

The London-based Hedgefund AKO Capital is speculating on a rate drop of Dutch building company BAM. The secretive investor has built up a short position of 1.16%, according to the short sellers register of the Dutch Authority Financial Markets. 

At construction company BAM, the cash flows out of the company are considerably higher than the incoming cash flows.

The company is challenged by its customers, which are less and less willing to make advance payments upon their building projects. This is disclosed in the communication of CEO Nico de Vries and CFO Thessa Menssen, accompanying the annual data of BAM. With respect to the cash position of BAM, Menssen stated: ‘there will be a minus or a slightly smaller minus in 2014’


Strenghts and Opportunities
  • Expansion in Denmark
  • An order portfolio filled with a number of special, high-profile projects;
  • The cautious, but undeniable economic growth in Europe;
  • The energy issues between Russia and the EU could lead to extra infrastructural projects within BAM’s home markets.

Weaknesses and threats 
  • A yet extremely challenging environment on BAM’s home markets The Netherlands and Ireland, in important branches like Residential / Commercial Real Estate Development and Civil Construction and only cautious growth in the other markets UK, Germany and Belgium;
  • The special projects alone – although impressive – will probably not be able to keep all people at work. This makes a dramatic improvement in every domestic market of BAM very necessary. I don’t see this happen before 2015, as the current developments are still very cautious or even negative!
  • The negative cash flows that the company had in 2013 and 2012, which might cause a liquidity squeeze;
  • Cash strapped customers that are not willing to pay advances anymore, effectively causing the aforementioned liquidity squeeze and thus operational risk;
  • Royal BAM having a hedgefund with a short position and undisclosed plans on its tail;
  • The Almere Icedôme project, which might be abolished after all, causing Royal BAM to lose a very prestigious project in The Netherlands, which could generate future assignments for building high-tech sports venues;

Short Selling Register

Per April 7, AKO Capital LLP holds a net short position of 1.16% in Royal BAM, according to the short selling register of the Dutch Authority Financial Markets.


My advice

Royal BAM Group nv is a large and successful Dutch building company with an impressive building portfolio and interesting specialties, which are hard to deliver for their competitors (except perhaps Ballast Nedam).


The mission and strategy of the company from the "annual report 2013" are sensible by itself, but quite grandiloquent. Besides that, these are not likely to yield quick gains and a quick improvement of the cash flow position. Being 'better than your competition' is what every company desires and therefore not exactly a winning strategy.

During the last few years, Royal BAM had a negative cash flow, coming out of operations. This could lead to a liquidity squeeze in the near future, which is dangerous for the company as a whole.

Besides that, the domestic markets and industries in which the company operates are yet very, very challenging and the chances for rapid improvements are dim. Therefore it is a wise decision that Royal BAM is chosing for an expansion strategy; within Europe as well as in the whole world, especially for its niche markets.

The governments in BAM’s home markets went through a period of ‘Keynesian’ stimulus since 2010, with additional investments in infrastructure. However, the level of these investments seemed to have stabilized at a structurally lower level again, causing that the chance for radical improvements in the civil construction markets have diminished.

The circumstance that the customers of BAM are seemingly strapped for cash and don’t want to make advance payments on their building projects is a tell-tale signal of the yet dire situation within the building industry.

Therefore I would advice investors to act extremely cautious, when investing in this company, as the situation might only improve as soon as 2015 or even later. 

The fact that a renowned hedgefund (albeit only one) has a short position of 1.16%, should be a warning signal.

Disclaimer: This analysis is solely written with the purpose of information supply. 

I don’t have any financial or business strings attached to this company. As I am not an investor myself, I don’t have any financial purposes with this advice, except for supplying people with free and interesting information. 

People are free to follow up my advices or not. However, I can’t accept any responsibility for the investment decisions that people make, based upon the advices mentioned in this article.

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