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Friday, 18 March 2011

Will the western world ‘save’ the Libyan Revolution? Or are we just sucked in another black hole of endlessly enduring wars?!

To my enormous surprise the UN Safety Council approved a military operation in Libya in order to enforce a ‘no flying’ zone and to offer protection for the Libyan revolutionists against Moammar al-Kadafhi’s army.

This happened with ten approvals and five abstentions. Already the fact that the BRIC’s (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and Germany didn’t vote against the military operation in Libya, can be seen as an enormous victory for Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy.

And probably one victory for which Sarkozy and Obama have paid quite a high price in the form of future concessions on decisions from the safety council (don’t forget to check sometime in 2013). Israel might have some subjects to worry about in the future, concerning planned settlements on the Gaza strip, East-Jeruzalem and the Westbank, as a future veto from the US on Israel-unfriendly decisions is suddenly not so sure anymore.

The abstention of Germany makes sense as they are almost always against military interference, since their actions during World War II. China and Russia were following the lead that they started when the crisis began one month ago, claiming that it was an internal Libyan affair. But at least they didn’t use their right to veto.

The reason that Brazil and India abstended has a strong odour of Texas Tea (oil) surrounding and a light odour of internal unrest. Especially India with their large Sikh, Muslim and Buddhist factions has no need for Libya pointing the finger in their direction when it comes to hypocrisy on Kashmir or other conflicted regions. You cannot tell Libya that they should not kill their own citizens, when the chance is present that you have to do it yourself in Kashmir, somewhere in the future.

And of course all BRICS wants their share of Libyan oil when Kadafhi remains in power and … their share of Libyan oil when the revolutionists win. Conflict of interest is not bad as long as you are not caught having it too openly. Therefore all BRIC’s pull a stolid face and mumble some requisite bromides about internal affairs, human rights and the chance of getting a second Iran in the Middle-East.

The western council members that all voted in favor of military intervention, however, take an enormous risk. They NEED to bring down Kadafhi now, including his army and government, or they will lose access to the Libyan oil for the rest of his reign.

And the decision of the safety council will send shockwaves through the Arab world: the king of Bahrein will have heard this signal very clearly and even king Abdullah of Saudi-Arabia won’t miss its implications: In these and other countries they see Kadafhi probably as the maverick brother that always has been the bad lot. But they don’t want to see their own reign on the line in the future, as a consequence of the current Shiite-Sunnite conflicts and the amount of violence that is used to stop the Shiites. And Kadafhi was an Arab brother, just like they are.

There are three immediate risks at the moment:
-     The risk that the western countries are sucked into a Iraqi style black hole war, where western groundtroops in Libya will fight an enduring battle against… against who in the end.
-     The risk that all Arab countries see the western countries as unreliable partners that are double-crossing them all the time. This would increase the chances of China, Russia and India concerning future oil contracts.
-     The Shiites in Saudi-Arabia, Iraq, Bahrein, Oman and other countries with a Sunnite government might see this as a motivation to further pick up the weapons and fight their revolutions, silently supported by Iran.

And that is a big mess that nobody wants to be in: total civil war in the whole Arab world.

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