While in
the US
the optimism on the economic situation is growing among investors, The
Netherlands is having a brisk walk on the bear-path, still deeper and deeper into
the dark forest.
Today, the
Dutch radio station Business News Radio (www.BNR.nl)
published an article that Dutch people are currently eating into their savings. These are not only the lower paid and educated people, which you might expect. To the contrary, also the higher
educated people that earn a more than decent salary are very much represented among this group. Why is that? Here are the
pertinent snips from the BNR-article:
According to the intermediate Dutch bank
‘Friesland Bank’(www.frieslandbank.nl),
25% of the Dutch citizens used their nest egg or savings to make ends meet in
2011. What is striking in this result, is the fact that 33% of the investigated
group has a bachelor or masters degree in education and an income of €40,000 per year or even higher .
Today Klaas Feenstra, Director Sales of
Friesland Bank, stated to BNR that highly educated people use their nest eggs
to ‘keep up appearances’ and maintain their lifestyle, to book a (second)
holiday or to purchase a car.
The fact that the interest on savings’ acounts
is extremely low, is not per definition the reason that the Dutch use their
savings: until July 2011, there has been a constant rise of the total savings at Friesland Bank.
Afterwards the savings’ money has been used
extensively. According to Feenstra, it is very well possible that people use
their savings for amortization of mortgage loans, urged by messages in the
media.
Next to
this published interview with Klaas Feenstra of Friesland Bank, BNR held a
radio interview with Jet Creemers, chairwoman of the Dutch Association of
Collection Agencies (NVI). I will show here a translated summary of this radio
interview (no link):
Jet Creemers, chairwoman of the NVI states that Dutch people with higher incomes
suffer extra from budget problems, compared to people with more moderate
incomes. These people feel the need to maintain their p;d lifestyle and are currently using
their savings for investments.
Creemers: ‘many higher educated people had more financial obligations than they could bear. They accepted these
obligations, expecting that their incomes would remain rising over the years,
These people are now confronted with the consequences of this behavior, as they
can’t pay their financial obligations from their disposable income anymore.
They are now eating into their savings and nest eggs.
There are a few problems: the yields on
invested money dropped, as the duration of the crisis was much longer than
expected. This brought the higher incomes into trouble. The interest on
savings’ accounts was very low, but the yields on stocks and bonds were also very
low.
And at the Dutch housing market, there are a lot
of unsold houses. These houses cause double
housing expenditures, as the owner has to pay for the old and the new house as well. On
top of that, the value of the houses did also drop during the last 5 years; sometimes well beneath
the mortgage amount. This leaves people no excess value on their house as a
base for new loans. And now the bonuses and extra payments, that people received earlier, have diminished too.
People reckoned with a higher income coming over the
years when they stepped into their financial obligations. Now this higher
income doesn’t come at all, the situation is getting more and more difficult
for these high earners.
While the government is aimed at helping people
when the financial damage is already done, it doesn’t act proactively to
prevent people from coming into financial trouble. It would be much better when
the (local) government would offer help to people that lost their job. Help on
how to cope with a lower income, how to keep your budget lean and mean and how
to not live beyond your means.
This doesn’t happen yet, unfortunately’
The hardest
thing for people during crisis years is saying goodbye to the life that has
been, when they can’t afford it anymore and getting used to a new, more austere
life.
This is a
true process of mourning and letting go of some or all the good things and
luxury that these people were used to. Yet it has to happen. Not only for the
people that lose their job or get paid much less for it, but also and
especially for their wives, husbands and children that were also used to luxury.
Telling
your teenage daughter that she cannot ride on horseback anymore is something
that no mother or father wants to do. Or telling your son that he has to abolish
his sports club.
The greater
the difference between the old and the new life is, the ‘easier’ this process might
be. If you go from €4000 per month to €2000 per month, you know that you have
to radically change your spending pattern.
But if you
go from €4000 per month to €3500 per month, you might still spend €4000 per
month, as the difference is so small that you don’t notice it directly. These
are the situations where people eventually start using their savings’ accounts.
In 2007, The
Netherlands and the United States had in common that both countries had a huge
housing bubble. Although the Dutch have a much better track record on paying
their mortgage redemption and interest, the Dutch housing bubble was hardly
smaller than the American one.
The
greatest difference, however, between The Netherlands and the US was the pace
of debt destruction in the housing market. Since 2007, the US housing market
has lost at a brutal pace between 30% and 60% in average value. Of course the housing
prices dropped much less in New York than in Florida, but in general the process
of debt destruction happened very quickly overthere.
The Dutch
housing market has only lost 10%-20% in value since 2007. The government, and
special interest clubs like the houseowners association ‘Vereniging Eigen Huis’
(VEH) and the realtors association NVM, tried very hard to regain the pre-2007
status quo, but this had little success. What it did achieve, however, was the
extremely slow pace of debt destruction. The bubble deflates with a sizzle and
not with a bang.
And then there is also
the issue of residual debt for people that want to sell their house while being
under water. In reality they can´t do so, as they get stuck with an enormous residual debt that costs years and years to return. The only escape route is defaulting, but this is a long and painful process of at least five years before you can make a fresh start. This obstructs a nasty, but quick process of debt destruction at the
Dutch housing market.
This is a
negative factor, as the slow debt destruction will probably lengthen the crisis
for years and years in The Netherlands. This might be very bad news for the higher earners. Their nest eggs and savings’ accounts might be gone well before
the crisis is over!
This is happening everywhere in the West, including in the US. Of the recent 2.8% growth of GDP, 1.9% of that was inventory stockpiling. This number is not sustainable. Still think countries like Holland, Germany, the Nordics - they will have challenges but come out the other end ok.
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