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Monday, 26 September 2011

German Mortgage Madness in The Netherlands

In my opinion, there is a simple truth concerning the housing market in The Netherlands. It is currently in a comatose situation, due to ‘peak housing prices’ and can only be released by a combination of: drastically lowering housing prices and lowering the mortgage burden of homeowners in The Netherlands.

However, not every party is yet convinced of this concept. Especially the German local, cooperative  bank, ‘Volksbank Emmerich-Rees eG’, thinks differently. It has the idea that lower mortgage interest rates can help Dutch people to buy a too expensive house, using a mortgage loan that can be considered too high. Therefore they opened a joint-venture with Dutch, Utrecht-based, advisory group Smartfee to hand out German mortgages to Dutch house-buyers.

The Dutch financial newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad (www.fd.nl) writes on this story of which I print the pertinent snips:


For the first time, a German bank enters the Dutch mortgage market. The price fighter offers interest rates that are lower than the current Dutch rates; between 0.2% and 0.4%, when compared to the cheapest existing supplier in The Netherlands.

This is stated by German Volksbank Emmerich-Rees eG and advice agency Smartfee in a conversation with this newspaper. Utrecht-based Smartfee is the only intermediary firm to advice these mortgages to customers.

It is, however, a cautious step on the Dutch housing market. The bank will only supply  €25 mln in mortgages, according to Holger Zitter, managing director of Volksbank Emmerich-Rees eG. In comparison: normally, mortgages to the value of about €5 bln per month are supplied  in The Netherlands. When Belgium mortgage supplier Argenta entered the Dutch market, it had several billions of Euro’s at their disposal.

The German mortgage will attract few starters on the housing market, as a demand is that the customer invests its own money too. The bank supplies only annuitary mortgages until 90% of execution value. This execution value is in general about 85% of the sales value of the house. In The Netherlands it is common practice to finance much more than the execution value.

German banks, like the Volksbank, can offer a lower interest rate than Dutch banks, as they pay less interest on savings accounts. Besides that, German banks can easily hand out mortgage loans as collateral for Mortgage Backed Securities, in Germany called ‘Pfandbriefen’.

I am symphatetic towards the Volksbank’s habit to lend not more than (roughly) 75% (90%*85%) of the purchase value of a house and to offer only annuitary loans, instead of the interest-only (jumbo) loans that are so popular in The Netherlands.

The German banks had, as far as I’m concerned, always a more healthy attitude towards mortgage amounts and (especially) amortization than Dutch banks. However, I think that this will limit the succes of the Volksbank, as most Dutch people still want the maximum mortgage possible, without monthly amortization on the mortgage amount.

And in my opinion, even a mortgage of 75% of the current sales value of residential houses can be considered too high.

The current average price drop of less than 10% since mid-2008, is nothing compared to the average 200% raise of prices since 1995 (see the aforementioned article ‘peak housing prices’). On forced auctions of houses in case of a default, numerous houses have been sold for only 50-70% of the outstanding mortgage amount. That the Volksbank is more prudent than the Dutch banks in supplying mortgages, doesn’t say that the Volksbank is actually prudent.

Besides that, the current mortgage interest rates, as handled by the large Dutch banks, contain finally a kind of risk insurance for the banks. This might seem bad for the customers, but it is much better for the stability of the banks.

But now, again a foreign bank tries to become a price-fighter in The Netherlands. It does so by lowering the interest rates to the bare minimum, while running a substantial financial risk in case of a default and by trying to sell the mortgages as Mortgage Backed Securities. It sounds like a bad movie we have seen before.

Therefore I call this German Mortgage Madness.

Friday, 23 September 2011

Eight advices to survive ‘the age of austerity’

This morning, my wife showed the new shoes of my daughter. These shoes were a gift of a very dear friend of ours. Her daughter owned them before, but the shoes (summer shoes)  became too small before the girl could even start to wear them. And now they are my little girl's new shoes, until they become to small for her too.

But before you become bored and click this page away, I want to tell you about this friend and her husband.

Both are very well educated, middle-class people with one child, that had several successful jobs and both earned a good salary in the past. But now both are unemployed.

He is unemployed, because he is a marketing manager. And as the age of austerity also hits small, medium and even large enterprises, the marketing manager is often one of the first functions that a company can do without.

And our friend?  Her job was finished, due to a conflict with her employer. Her employer was very unreasonable and she was totally right to quit, but now she is jobless too.

And that is no reason for celebration, even in ‘socialist welfare state’, The Netherlands.

However, a normal family can manage to stay afloat, if they learn to adapt to loss of income. But this friend and her husband didn’t:

·    The family still owns two cars, for which they have to pay gas, insurances, taxes and repairs;
·    She spends every week €180 on groceries, for her 3 person family at one of the most expensive supermarket chains, Albert Heyn; a lot of this goes to pre-cut vegetables and pre-prepared food.
·    The family takes a fortnight’s holiday in a 5-star, all inclusive resort in Greece; outside the holiday season, but still…;
·    Instead of buying €15 shoes, she buys €50 shoes for her daughter; not only one pair, but many more;
·    Also for other clothes, she spends more than three-four times as much, as my own wife.
o    In earlier times, you could perhaps state as a reason that expensive clothes were made in The Netherlands or Europe, where much better fabrics and yarn were used. But these days all clothes are made in the Far East under often very unhealthy circumstances. So that isn’t the difference anymore
·    Her only daughter goes to Kindergarten 2 times per week and spends two days per week at a daycare center. This costs our friend €900 per month, but she states: “I need to have some time for myself”.
·    Although her husband is already unemployed for more than a year, he didn’t consider one micro-second to accept a job that is ‘below his standards’.

Well, if you want to survive the age of austerity, this doesn’t seem the right way to do so. And these friends are now also starting to discover that it is impossible to maintain their lifestyle without a job. But they still try.

Therefore I want to share some advices ‘from the heart’, to lead people through ‘the age of austerity’ unharmed, only to come out as better persons.

Advice 1: Admit to yourself: “I’m unemployed and I don’t have much money to spend anymore. My luxury days are over, for the time being!”

This can be a very liberating confession, as it forces you to see that everything is different and you must become a different person to cope with this.

Tod Harrison of Minyanville (http://www.minyanville.com/) often states: “net worth and self-worth are different things” and that is a wise thing to discover. If you can manage to come to a different mindset, a more frugal lifestyle can be just as satisfying as being a ‘big spender’.

Advice 2: Tell your children about the changes in your financial situation. They will and must understand that things have changed. Don’t keep up appearances.

Children, especially adolescents with an expensive taste for clothing (often pressured by fellow-students), expensive hobbies (horseback riding) or doing high-profile and expensive sports like field hockey, tennis or sailing, can have a hard time coping with the situation.

It is not an option to get indebted for your children's desires (see advice 4), as you ‘can’t stay afloat with a hole in your boat’. Therefore you must tell them the honest truth. It can be a very valuable lesson for them, teaching them to cope with loss and necessary frugality. It might be hard, but they will become better and more mature persons from it.

Advice 3: Try not to care what other people say of your new situation. Good friends will help you and love you anyway. Bad friends will leave you.

You will find out who your real friends are and who were bad friends in hindsight. That is not bad: bad friends are like millstones, sucking away your energy and wasting your time. And remember: you didn’t change as a person; only the circumstances changed for you.

And if your neighborhood won’t accept your new lifestyle, it’s their problem. Not yours.

Advice 4:  Cut all costs for luxury things that you can easily abolish and don’t make debt.

Two cars for an unemployed family is ridiculous, so sell one and keep the cheapest. If you get a new job, it will often include a company car (at least in The Netherlands). And use more often a bike: it costs you almost nothing and saves you valuable gasoline.

Skip daycare for your children. Children are your own responsibility, so if you have ample time to take care of them, do it then. Don’t whine about having too little time for yourself.

And when you need to go to a job application, there is often family, a friend or a neighbor available to take care of them. These friends won’t charge you anything and they will mostly be happy to do so. Don’t forget to return the favor, when applicable.

And: there is almost never a good reason to get indebted for whatever consumptive article or service; not even a smart-phone. You will eventually find out that you didn’t need it really. And if you still think you need consumptive articles, try to save for them

One exception: accepting debt to pay for healthcare or other inevitable costs can sometimes be inevitable. If you have children growing up, a washing machine and good basic kitchen appliances are indispensable. When these become defective, they must be replaced.

Don’t cut too much cost here, but try to find out where you get the quality brands for less money instead. A low-quality washing machine lasts you for 3-5 years, while a high-quality brand lasts you for 10-20 years, while it is often more economical. That’s a big difference.


Advice 5: go to inexpensive shops and supermarkets, check the leaflets with bargains and skip pre-cut and pre-cooked food.

There is so much difference in price between:
·    Prices of bargain articles vs normally priced articles (≈ 20-40%)
·    Prices of cheap supermarkets and shops vs expensive supermarkets and shops. (≈ 5-10%)
·    Prices of raw and unprepared food vs pre-cut and pre-cooked food. (≈ 50-100%
·    Prices of cheap clothes and shoes vs designer clothes and shoes (≈ 100-400%)
·    Prices during sales-season vs prices during high-season (≈ 100-400%)

These bullets can save you hundreds of Euro’s (dollars) per month and that is very easy money. Therefore read the leaflets of supermarkets and shops to find the bargains.

My five person family spends only €130 per week on groceries at low-priced supermarket chains, like the Lidl (German discount supermarket). Still we eat some meat, fruit and fresh vegetables every day, ‘have a (private label) Coke and a smile’ now and then and some candy and a bag of crisps every week.

Don’t cut cost on healthy things: good quality meat, fresh fruit and vegetables and good bread are quite expensive, but are necessary to keep you healthy and happy.

And sometimes bargains come in the strangest postures. One personal example: a brand of quality articles for personal care offered (almost) free tickets for attraction parks, via a chain of drugstores.

Thanks to eight packages of toothpaste and soap (€16), our whole family could visit an attraction park for less than €20 all inclusive.

Advice 6: Skip expensive holidays in luxurious resorts and go instead for a camping holiday at a beautiful place in your own country. Take bikes with you, if you can.

Luxurious resorts are extremely expensive, often boring and they might invite you to bad habits, like eating and drinking too much, because it is free or staying near your hotel, instead of looking at the surroundings, because it is easy.

On a camping site in your own country or state, you can often stay in a tent for less than €15 per person per day. If you don’t have a tent, you can often rent one for a reasonable price.

And you will be surprised how many beautiful spots, cities and villages your own country or state has to offer. Especially if you visit those by bike. The latter has more advantages: you are working on your condition and you enjoy the look, feel and smell of ‘being on the road again’.

Advice 7: Create a budget and try to save for a rainy day.

When you try to live frugal and don’t do crazy things, you often find out that you still can save some money. The easiest way is to create a budget that tells you what your fixed and variable costs are and where you can save money by changing your lifestyle.

Try especially to save the extra’s that you get, as you didn’t calculate these in your budget: incidental bonus-money, MID-money (Mortgage Interest Deduction), vacation money, Christmas presents.

Put these in your savings account (in spite of the louzy interest) and you will find out that what initially seems a pathetic little heap, can turn in a pile of money in a few years, especially if you manage to keep your hands off. Don’t invest it, if you can’t afford to lose it.

Advice 8: find a job. Especially heavy and dirty jobs in a production environment are almost always available. Remember, these are no jobs to be ashamed of.

I don’t know how it is in the States or in other European countries, but in The Netherlands, if you really want it, there are almost always jobs available at the temporary employment agency.

It are often jobs like: professional cleaner, employee in an industrial washing mill, production employee in a manufacturing environment, packager, postman etc.

Take such a job, instead of staying at home, where you can get desperate and depressed and can get used to doing nothing and sleeping long hours.

You will stay in condition, get a chance to suppress the worries and get to make other (valuable) contacts.

And, most important: you have an explanation for the hole in your resumee and show to your future employer that you are not ‘too lazy to work’. If you do shift work and start f.i. at 6:00 am, you will have plenty of time to write job application mails in the remainder of the day.

Sometimes these kind of jobs even pay quite good and the working atmosphere is often fine. In the few times that I was unemployed, I did the same and it always suited me fine. I still have very fond memories of working in a milk factory.

This is a heavy crisis – also in The Netherlands –, but I’m convinced that the strongest people will come out stronger and as better persons than they went in.

Thursday, 22 September 2011

House prices in The Netherlands keep dropping: A broader look at the Dutch Residential Real Estate market during the last 16 years.

There isn’t a market in The Netherlands, where government officials, insiders and pundits so often try to sell ‘hope’ as an investment strategy, as the Dutch Residential Real Estate market (RRE).

Statements like 'now is the perfect time to buy a house',  'those nasty pessimists spoil the mood of buyers' or 'when all talking about abolishing the Mortgage Interest Deduction stops, the housing market will recover', try to persuade potential buyers into buying a (much too expensive) house.

But there aren’t many markets where hope is such a bad investment strategy as on the same RRE-market.

The latest residential real estate data of the Central Bureau for Statistics (http://www.cbs.nl/) was again little cause for fun & games. The data was not good, as regular readers of my blog already would have guessed. Here are the pertinent snips of the CBS monthly report:


Prices of existing owner-occupied houses were on average 2.8% lower in August 2011 than in August 2010. According to the price index of existing residential property – a joint publication by Statistics Netherlands and the Land Registry Office – the price drop is more substantial than in previous months.

All types of dwellings were cheaper in August 2011 than one year previously. Prices of detached houses dropped most (4.5%), prices of terraced houses the least (2.1%).

Prices fell in almost all provinces. With more than 5%, residential property prices declined most in Limburg and Gelderland. Zeeland was the only province to show a price increase ( 1.7%).

Prices of existing residential property units declined by 0.7% relative to July 2011. In nine out of twelve provinces prices dropped; the most in Limburg and South Holland (more than 2%). With 2.6%, Utrecht saw the highest price increase.

Around 10,000 existing owner-occupied houses changed hands in August, almost 4% fewer than in August 2010. In the first eight months of 2011, over 78,000 houses were sold, a decline by nearly 5% compared to the same period last year.

Readers that don’t know the situation on the Dutch housing market, could think that these declines in housing prices and housing sales are (only) caused by the credit crisis. They could think that the housing prices will increase again, when the credit crisis is over and the financial stability returned to the markets.

Here are five charts with the price development vs. the sold number of houses for the five most popular housing types in The Netherlands, measured since 1995. In these charts, I will show you that the sales decline already set in well before the start of the credit crisis in The Netherlands. And I'll show you that before 2006, the value of all house types almost tripled. As in a bubble... 

All chart data is courtesy of the Dutch Central Bureau for Statistics (http://www.cbs.nl/). For obvious reasons, the sales data for 2011 is missing, but the general sales decline for housing in The Netherlands is 5%, until September. This number will probably increase in the coming months:

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Although it differs from one housing type to another, the general decline in sales in The Netherlands already started in 2006.

In 2006, the credit crisis in The Netherlands was still some two-and-a-half years away:
·    Therefore the credit crisis was not the cause for the decline in housing sales and...
·    The bank rules for lending and mortgages were at that time still: ‘the sky is the limit’.
·    There was also no government legislation on its way yet.
·    Although there was a little rise in the interest rate in 2006, which might have triggered some mood change under house-owners, since then the average interest returned to about the 2005 level;

When these four circumstances are likely not the cause for the drop in sales (although some might have acted as a catalyst), there must have been a different reason.

In my opinion, this reason was a ‘peak oil-ish’ situation in the Dutch housing market: housing prices had to start dropping, because they couldn’t go up any further. The declining sales numbers were the 'messenger' in this process.

The price difference between houses in The Netherlands vs Belgium and Germany had risen well above 30% for an average house in 2006, in less than 12 years.

The price difference was even bigger when you looked at the amount of terrain you received with your house in The Netherlands vs Belgium and Germany. The housing terrain in the latter countries was in general about 2 to 4 times as large as in The Netherlands.

This spread in housing prices between these countries was caused by the ample availability of extremely cheap money for house-owners in The Netherlands: the interest rates on mortgages since 1995, have been well below the median interest of 7% of the 50 years before.

On top of that, the low price of mortgage money was strongly reinforced by the Mortgage Interest Deduction (MID), that brought the bank interest rates of 3.5% - 5.5%, effectively back to 1.75% - 3.25% (for much more on this topic, please fill in MID or Mortgage Interest Deduction at my search engine).

And banks were more than happy to fill your wallet to the brim for house purchases. This situation was roughly comparable to the situation in the US before 2008. 

And suddenly in 2006, the peak housing price was reached. Housing sales declined strongly and the housing prices lagged for a year, before also starting to drop (slowly). This process is enduring up to this day and it won't stop within five years, I guess.

The reason that the housing prices didn’t drop more ferociously, can be found in my article “Dutch RRE market remains locked up badly”.

The main reason remains that it is almost impossible for someone to get rid of residual mortgage debt, when this person sells his/her house for a lower price than the mortgage amount (i.e. the seller had been under water).

This is THE reason that people don’t lower their prices and that the housing market remains locked up badly. People can’t afford to sell their house and get stuck with residual debt; so they keep their house and pray for better times.

The government could have made an important step by abolishing the MID (saves €9bln in subsidies per year) and by offering an intermediate arrangement (subsidy) for people to pay back excess mortgage, but it didn’t. Instead, it decided to kick the can down the road.

And until the day that the MID is abolished, or banks find a way to free people from excess mortgage, the housing market will remain firmly locked. And every new overview of the CBS proves my point over-and-over again.

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