Smog alert: the industrial success of China is starting to threaten the lives of the people in Beijing (and other Chinese cities).

Smog alert in Beijing, China. The current smog rate is about 30 times as bad as is considered still to be ‘safe’ for people.

The Dutch newspaper NRC (www.nrc.nl) writes about this story in an article, provided with a series of pictures that says more than a thousand words:

Smog in Beijing became so dense that it ran off the index

Inhabitants of Beijing stayed inside this morning, while edifices disappeared in the polluted skyline. The smog in the Chinese capital became so dense lately that measurements show results that are outside any known index.

AP states that the measured density of PM2.5 particles, less than 2.5 thousandst of a millimeter, rose beyond the 700 microgram per cubic meter. The World Health Organization considers 25 microgram per cubic meter as the maximum amount that is still safe for health.

PM2.5 particles are extremely small, with a thickness of 1/30 of an average human hair. These particles can very deeply penetrate the lungs, causing all kinds of respirational problems. The local authorities in Beijing advise to keep children and elderly peope inside. All others must limit their outside activities to the bare minimum.

According to research by the University of Beijing and Greenpeace, last year 8,600 people perished from the consequences of the bad air quality.

The article is a must-see, even if you can’t read Dutch. The pictures tell it all. No further comments needed.

Is David Cameron a party pooper on Angela Merkel and François Hollande’s 50th anniversary of the Elysée treaty?!

It's my party, and I'll cry if I want to

Cry if I want to, cry if I want to

You would cry too if it happened to you

It’s my party – Lesley Gore

A German fairytale…

Angela Merkel is agitatedly pacing up and down her room in the Bundeskanzlerei, the official office of the Chancellor in Berlin, Germany. She is mad, very mad. The cause for her angriness: David Cameron.

“What the hell was this moron thinking, when he planned his anti-EU speech at the same day as the 50th anniversary of the Elysée treaty”.

The German primadonna felt like Lesley Gore in her most famous hit from the 60’s, just at the moment when she saw her Johnny walk through the door with his new fiancee, who was wearing his ring.

“It’s my party” sobs Merkel “… and I cry if I want to… 

Just when everything in Europe seems to be a bit calmer and everybody acknowledged that Draghi and I did a helluva job in saving the Euro, then this clown comes along and spoils my party. Oooh, how could he do this?!

Right when we thought that we had that Dutch jerk Mark Rutte out of the way, by appointing his Finance Minister – uhm, what was this guy’s name again?! –  Dieselblum, or whatever… as head of the Eurogroup. It’s not fair.

François will be mad too when he hears about this. I will give him a call… Oh, no wait. I will call David myself and I will tell him the truth about this ridiculous plan. I will threaten to kick him out of the EU personally. Then he doesn’t need to hold this bloody speech anymore and he can shove this referendum too. SECRETARY!! Call 10 Downing Street for me. NOW!!”

Of course, this small monologue of Angela Merkel is just a figment of my imagination. This did, of course, never happen… probably.

On the other hand, I’m certain that Angela Merkel is not amused at all about Cameron’s intended critical speech about the EU and especially about the timing of it. Also French president Hollande won’t see the humour in this British action.

On 22 January of this year, it is the 50th anniversary of the Elysée treaty between the legendary German chancellor Konrad Adenauer and the great French general / président Charles de Gaulle. This treaty can be seen as a landmark.

It marked the official end to all hostilities and animosity between the old adversaries Germany and France and the beginning of a long and very fruitful period of friendship between these countries: within the predecessors of the EU (respectively the European Coal and Steel Community and the European Economic Community), but also with the special European axis Paris – Bonn initially, followed up by Paris – Berlin.

Various German Bundeskanzlers, like Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Helmut Kohl became friends with French presidents like Georges Pompidou, Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, and François Mitterand. Not based on unity of thinking – the French and German political and economic doctrines have always been quite different – but based on a mutual interest as the two leading economies within Europe.

That David Cameron is planning his critical speech on the EU exactly on January, 22 and that he might hold it either in Germany, in Belgium (unofficial capital of Europe and host to most EU institutions) or in The Netherlands where his euro-sceptic buddy Mark Rutte lives, is in my opinion more than just bad taste.

At this time David Cameron is definitely not a Berliner, unlike the famous American president…

The Financial Times writes the following article about these events:

PM upsets Germans over speech timing

David Cameron has astonished Berlin by looking to make his controversial Europe speech on the same day that France and Germany stage lavish celebrations marking their postwar reconciliation.

To add to the diplomatic drama, Mr Cameron is considering making his speech in Germany on the day hundreds of French and German politicians gather in Berlin to mark the 50th anniversary of the Elysée treaty.

The office of Chancellor Angela Merkel is understood to be in direct contact with Downing Street about the preferred date. One senior German official said the timing was “quite extraordinary”.

“It is insane,” said Ulrike Guérot at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “Mr Cameron should have some decent respect. It is a sulky reaction, and an attempt to steal the headlines.”

“Choosing the 50th anniversary of the most important treaty between France and Germany to make a big anti-EU speech is a grotesque perversion,” added Denis MacShane, a former Labour Europe minister. “It’s like a religious day for them.”

Mr Cameron is expected to decide this weekend precisely when and where he will set out his vision of a looser British relationship with the EU, which he would then put to a referendum.

Downing St favours January 22 because it falls between US President Barack Obama’s inauguration on January 21 and the Davos World Economic Forum starting on January 23.

British officials insist the provisional date “is not intended” to be provocative. They argue that Mr Cameron will make the case for Britain staying in the EU – albeit on new terms – and will stress the project’s contribution to postwar peace.

I believe the British officials when they insist that the date is not intended to be provocative. These officials are just a bunch of jerks that don’t know anything about history and about the feelings of the French and Germans. That’s why they picked this date, because it fitted so well between Obama’s inaugurational speech and Davos.

By the way, I saw ELVIS lately!! In the 7-11!!! Yeah, really!!!

What is a deeper concern for me is what Tory PM David Cameron wants to say in his speech?!

His political situation at home is very dire. A large part of the British citizens and a large part of his Tory party hate the EU’s guts and would rather step out of the EU yesterday than today. Nick Clegg’s Liberal Party, and a substantial part of Labour is not so rabiately anti-EU and prefers staying in it. This is an obvious cause for conflict within the British Tory-Liberal coalition, although both parties cannot use a cabinet crisis at this moment.

On top of that, there is probably not much leeway for Cameron within the European Commission and at the government leaders of the European countries to claim a special position for the British in the Union: a position that does maintain the benefits from the EU, but without its obvious drawbacks for the British.

The UK already enjoyed a number of special agreements since the 80’s and Cameron’s position within the EU did not become stronger, since he decided to boycot a new treaty for the EU and the Euro-zone in December, 2011. 

Cameron's condemnation of this new EU treaty in 2011 forced the other EU-states to create a special legal construct, in order to maintain the European budget rules (i.e. the refurbished Stability and Growth Pact) more strictly within the EU and the Eurozone.

These preceding circumstances make David Cameron’s speech very precarious, especially as a possible British referendum on the EU membership is like a giant elephant in the room: very much there, but supposedly not seen by anybody present.

If Cameron’s speech is too much anti-EU, then he passes a point-of-no-return that hardly leaves him any other option then heading for the door of the EU. In this case, not only the EU, but also the US will be angry with the UK, thus further isolating the island.

However, when his speech is not sufficiently aggressive and critical towards the EU, he will not only lose the confidence of a large part of the British population, but also within his own Tory party and grassroots he might become a ‘persona non grata’.

If I was David Cameron, I would start to suffer from a political pneumonia that keeps me in bed until the 23rd of January, hoping that everybody forgets about this doomed speech.

Will Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem be appointed as the next Chairman of the Euro-group? Definitely! Has this been done to put the Dutch Euro-sceptic attitude offside? You betcha!

Three and a half weeks ago, on Monday, 17 December 2012, I was present at BNR Newsroom. This is a talk-radio show from the Dutch Business News Radio station BNR (www.bnr.nl), recorded for a live studio-audience, which deals with news-worthy political, economic and financial issues.

This weekly show, presented by BNR’s hotshot radio-maker Paul van Liempt, featured an interview with the new BNR correspondent for the EU in Brussels, the adorable and smart journalist Anke Truijen.

Picture of Paul van Liempt at BNR Newsroom
Picture taken by Ernst Labruyère
Click to enlarge

Exactly this day the rumour had been spread that the rookie Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem had been named as the successor of Jean-Claude Juncker.

This Luxemburg Prime Minister had chaired the very important and influential Eurogroup during the previous eight years. In this position he had been involved in all important events, concerning the Euro-crisis. This Eurogroup consists of the Finance Ministers of the Euro-zone countries and has a very important role in the negotiation and preparation process of all political decisions concerning the Euro. 

According to the writer of the book “The Eurocrisis” and former Financieele Dagblad (www.fd.nl) correspondent in Brussels, Martin Visser, Jean-Claude Juncker had weakened his position as a chairman, by making a large tactical blunder during the Euro-crisis in December, 2010. 

In an Op-Ed to the Financial Times, which Juncker wrote with Italian Finance minister Giulio Tremonti, Juncker mentioned Eurobonds as a possible solution for the Euro-crisis. To state that this plan met very little excitement among the other Euro-zone Finance Ministers, would be the understatement of the year. As a consequence Juncker operated as a lame duck during the last years of his stint as chairman of the Euro-group. 

Still, his role as chairman had been extremely important.

Now, the Dutch Dijsselbloem, who served only for the last Quarter of 2012 as Finance Minister, had been mentioned as his successor. Was this coincidence? Of had something more been going on?!

My question to Anke Truijen was: Is Dijsselbloem mentioned as chairman to get the stubborn Dutchies out of the way with their resistance against further Euro-integration?

Anke Truijen
Picture copied from Anke's Twitter-account
Click to enlarge

Unfortunately, Anke did not hear any rumours about this yet and therefore could not give a definite answer in this matter. However, in my humble opinion this was hardly necessary. Now, almost one month after BNR Newsroom I still stick with my initial suspicion. Why would I doubt it anyway?!

Although Dutch PM Mark Rutte and Dijsselbloem himself still go through the motions of denying that Dijsselbloem is the candidate of choice for the chairman position, it becomes more and more clear that Dijsselbloem is indeed the one and only candidate.

Juncker himself stated that the candidate comes from a country where they speak a Benelux-language (French, Dutch and Luxemburgian). Other insiders stated that the country that delivers the next chairman should be a country with a Triple-A credit rating (Luxemburg, Finland, Germany and The Netherlands).

To do the math: 

• a German chairman would be unacceptable for other countries as this would make Germany too influential within the Euro-zone;
• Luxemburg just had delivered the chairman and choosing another chairman from Luxemburg would be out of the question. On top of that Juncker had messed up his job;
• Belgium already delivers Van Rompuy as President of the EU and, besides that, it has no Triple-A status anymore;
• Finland does not speak a Benelux-language and already delivers the very influential EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn;

To help the journalists and people even further, they could have said that the candidate should have dark-brown, curly hair and should wear frameless glasses:

Jeroen Dijsselbloem
Picture courtesy of www.nrc.nl
Click to enlarge

Why was I so sure from the beginning that Dijsselbloem would get this position, even though it was nothing more than a rumour yet?

If we look at the recent history of The Netherlands within the Euro-zone, it would be an overstatement to state that the Dutch role has been very constructive lately.

In earlier articles, I called PM Mark Rutte and former Finance Minister Jan-Kees de Jager the school-bullies of the Euro-zone. They did little more than bashing the PIIGS-countries and saying ‘nyet’ to almost any decision that could help the EU move forward, even at moments that the very carefully operating German chancellor Angela Merkel already had given her approval.

The Netherlands, although a small country, has one of the strongest economies within the Euro-zone, it has almost the highest GDP per capita in Europe, it is relatively the biggest exporter within the EU and it is one of the few remaining Triple-A countries in the world. On top of that, it is one of the founders of the European Community for Coal and Steel, the earliest predecessor of the current EU. Within the European Union, it is a must to have the Dutch on your team.

On the other hand, the country has been one of the most euro-sceptical Euro-zone members lately, only beaten by the Finns who are currently strongly under the influence of the populist True Finns party.

To prevent the Dutch PM Mark Rutte and the new Finance Minister from staying in their comfort-zone of easy Euro-scepticism, the EU is planning to make Dijsselbloem chairman of the Euro-group.

This solves two problems: 1) The Netherlands again deserves an influential position within the EU and 2) the EU is certain that The Netherlands will play a constructive role within the Euro-group and it can’t just lean back, waiting for other countries to solve the issues.

The chairman of the Euro-group must put the agenda for the meetings together and he cannot be too Euro-sceptical if he doesn’t want to lose his credibility. If the Eurogroup agenda – put together by Dijsselbloem – would show too little progress on the road to the future, ‘Mother’ Merkel would be ready to whip up the process. Thus the Euro-sceptical Dutch are out of the way, leaving only the Finns behind: a country that is small enough to be either ignored or overpowered.

Therefore the election of Dijsselbloem, although he is a freshman Finance Minister with hardly three months of experience, is a tactical masterpiece and thus inevitable in my opinion. And PM Mark Rutte? He will grind his teeth and accept this honourable position with the  ‘smile’ of a hungry great white shark.

Does The Netherlands 'gain' something by Dijsselbloem’s election?! Oh yeah!

I was bothered by the recent Dutch Euro-scepticism as I considered it to be counterproductive, blunt and utterly stupid.

Now the christian-democrat CDA and especially the populist PVV lost their important role within the Dutch political process, the VVD and particularly Mark Rutte remain on their own with their Euro-scepticism. The PvdA (Dutch labour) is much more pro-Europe and has with Frans Timmermans an extremely adequate and learned Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Dijsselbloem, although inexperienced, has everything to become a very good Finance Minister. He seems honest, balanced and fair and he is very intelligent. He doesn't seem to have the negative bias towards the Euro that his predecessor seemingly had. 

He has been the chairman of a parliamentary investigative commission that investigated the trouble within the Dutch educational system and did a very fine job there. Further, he has nothing running against him. 

To put it even stronger: I voted for him during the last Dutch parliamentary elections. He is my so-called “guy in Den Haag” (i.e. The Hague).

Now it is time for the Dutch to collect some bonus-points again and – on top of that – help the Euro-crisis to be solved for the future, before the same ol’ same ol’ concerning Greece, Spain, Italy and Portugal starts all over again. 

I have no doubt that Dijsselbloem will play an important role in this process; helped by his colleagues within the EU and in spite of the ignorant, blunt and seemingly clueless PM Mark Rutte.