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Sunday, 26 June 2016

What will happen now with Europe and the United Kingdom?!

Yesterday, I described how the momentum for the catastrophic referendum in the United Kingdom  could be mounted upon the terrible ‘self promotion’ marketing for the European Union, as committed by the leadership of the EU itself: the European Commission, the European Council and the European Parliament. During the last 20 years, the EU has sold itself as ‘the mother of all lemons’ and a cause absolutely not worth investing and trusting in or fighting for. This way, it lost nearly all the confidence it had among the European population

The leadership of the EU blatantly failed to explain and explain again the reasons for its establishment in the Fifties and Sixties and the still extremely topical ‘raisons d’etre’ of the Union: in fact now more topical than ever before, because of the economic depression that we are in since 2008.

A majority of the population of the United Kingdom – the very unwilling wedding partner in its doomed marriage-out-of-mutual-economic-benefit with the EU – has believed the bedtime stories and (half) lies of a bunch of nitwits, populist squallers and ‘toddlers-playing-with-matches’, who promised gold mountains and eternal benefit when the country would leave the EU. The latter, on the other hand, was only defended by a reckless Prime Minister and a group of bleeding heart politicians without real stature, persuasiveness and influence, inside AND outside the United Kingdom (i.e. the European Union).

And now the deal is done... The UK voted to get out of the EU with a really minute majority of 52%, thus pushing button of the ejection seat while hardly understanding what has happened anyway.

So  now that the Brexit party is over, the hangover has set in within the UK, as well as within the whole EU with brute, nuclear force...:

  • The EU leadership, who thought they could counter the Brexit plans by simply downplaying the phenomenon and throwing in a big portion of fearmongering and ridiculizing of these plans, woke up in cold sweat feeling hit by a hammer multiple times; 
  • The flabbergasted ‘Bremain’ camp is screaming for another referendum, because they can’t believe what hit them and they see now how small the majority for the Brexit vote was; 
  • One prominent member (i.e. Nigel Farage) of the Brexit camp itself started swallowing his easy lies over the economic benefits of a Brexit for the British population, telling “it wasn’t me!”;
  • Another prominent member of the Brexit camp (i.e. Boris Johnson) radically changed his tone of voice regarding the EU (i.e. from ‘the successor of Hitler’s Third Reich’ towards “we will always be Europeans”) and is in no hurry anymore to fill in the Article 50 form, enabling the Brexit;
  • British citizens that were initially very enthusiastic about leaving the EU are now counting their blessings and think whether the choice for Brexit that they made, was a smart one indeed and not based upon lies and unjust hearsay;
  • The neutral part of the population is dismayed and can’t believe the scientific, socionomic experiment that they are watching now within their country;
  • The people in Wales, North-Ireland and Scotland, who were mainly against a Brexit, are now forging plans to plummet the results of the referendum as ‘being illegal’, hoping to counter the now inevitable exit;
  • If that fails these UK-countries perhaps want to get out of the UK, in order to stay within the EU;
  • And the other 27 members of the EU, who are really sick and tired of the whole British conundrum that already wasted 3 valuable years, try to get it over with as soon as possible, in order to get the show on the road again; rather today than tomorrow;
  • They consider October, 2016, which was the designated start date of the exit-criteria negotations – mentioned by David Cameron when he stepped down as Prime Minister – to be a disgrace and an unnecessary hampering of the exit-process;
  • Germany and France – in an obvious panic reaction – are launching plans for a new EU at lightning speed, instead of really asking themselves what hit them over the last few months.

So what will happen now...?

Scenario 1

The UK finds a (legal) way to declare this referendum an ‘invalid’ one (i.e. ‘null and void’) and admits it was a historical mistake. They declare that they want to revoke the plans for a Brexit.

The EU accepts this explanation with a straight face and an iron grin and welcomes the lost sheep back in the flock, while pondering about ways to punish the UK for its stupidity for at least ten years.
The UK bows its head and accepts the humiliation in silence...

Scenario 2

The EU reminds the UK that this referendum was a one-off and that the results and consequences of it are irrevocable. It also tells the new leadership to hurry up with sending their Article 50 request.

At the same time the EU – under influence of Germany and France – speeds up the process of further integration towards the political union, now that ‘jamming station’ the United Kingdom has been lifted out of the equasion.

The leaders of the other European countries and the population all over Europe get more and more alienated by the accelerated progress of the unappointed, but very real Union leadership of France and Germany, but these two countries persist anyway in following their roadmap towards an ever closer union.

In the end the whole EU might implode, because it forgot for which it was established in the first place. This would be the doom scenario...

Scenario 3

The UK is forced to get out of the European Union indeed, but the union itself gets into a serious identity crisis, with impact for years. The Union declares that it cannot longer ignore the dramatic mood changes among the European population or the dramatic events in the United Kingdom.

After a long and extremely painful process that could take a few years, EU 2.0 is invented, in which the neoliberal roadmap of the last 20-odd years is abandoned for good.

Again there emerges more attention for the social needs and labour protection of the lower middle classes and the original and yet very topical raisons d’etre of the EU.

Instead of the EU being an enduring battle between the Calvinist North and the Catholic South or a battle between successful, wealthy citizens at one hand and the backwarded middle and lower classes at the other – people who don’t have a job and/or any form of financial and economic protection anymore – the EU decides to become a union for all citizens again: a union based upon social-democratic foundations, with an emphasis on the soft sides of the union for the total European population.

At the end of this long and painful period, the UK can decide whether it wants to re-enter the EU 2.0 or stay out of it for good.

My heart lies with scenario 3!

The European Union, which I love and admire, has drifted away too far from the reasons for its foundation and sheer existence. In my opinion, this is the reason that so many Europeans feel alienated by the EU and see it as an undemocratic and even dictatorial beast, that stands in the way of their nation states, on which they have more democratic influence

The EU has in fact turned into a monster with the monomanic emphasis upon the open markets and upon lifting the trade barriers, while dramatically neglecting the rights and interests of all the European citizens, in North, South, East and West Europe.

The EU has made life miserable for people in poor states with their dramatic emphasis on austerity and reduction of the balance gaps of the last eight years, instead of on spurring innovation and prosperity in its member states by making investments in necessary developments.

It gathered a reputation of being a spending-happy, undemocratic group of people that was only working on the interests of the ‘big money’ corporations and on the creation of laws and measures that nobody understands anymore.

That is why I have the following pledge:

The EU should return to being an establishment ‘For the European people’, ‘Of the European people’ and ‘With the European people’; not a toy for neo-liberal, well-to-do people and large corporates, who use the EU as a tool to diminish their tax payments. You must diminish the current emphasis on neo-liberal values, in order not to be slaughtered by the common, European people.

Therefore I ask the representatives of all (remaining) EU member states to really think about what has gone wrong during the last eight years!

Think about why you have alienated so many European citizens and why it is nearly impossible to explain your policy and future plans to the common citizens in the poor rural areas of the United Kingdom... and as a matter of fact of all Europe!

A mindless pursuit for an ever-closer union is not the solution at this very moment. Neither is an EU Light, in which the ‘nation states’ make all the decisions again; this would be the end of the United Europe and would turn the EU even more in ‘27 frogs in a wheel-barrow’, in which no political decision is ever made. This is the recipe for even more stress and more inequality than now already: a selfish Europe without a mutual future!

Take your time after this dramatic referendum and think about the consequences that this referendum should have for your policy and your political future!

Build the EU 2.0 of which the people are proud to be a member!!!

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