Will Xi Jinping become the new Mao Zedong? And how worrisome is that for the rest of the world and especially Taiwan?

When you look at the face of Chinese President and Chairman of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, you don’t see the face of a potentate or a powerhungry epicure, in my humble opinion. It is rather the face of a friendly, somewhat shy and restrained, but nevertheless smart uncle, who knows a lot about life.

Yet, this man is responsible for arguably the greatest political revolution in recent Chinese history, since the days of legendary leaders Deng Xiaoping and Mao Zedong. And also for the most aggressive Chinese foreign policy since decades.

In his recent speech as Chairman of the Communist Party, in the eve of his second term as Chinese President, President Xi has officially made his grand visions on the development of China part of the official lecture of this Communist Party. And that was something that no Chinese Chairman/President ever managed during life, since Chairman Mao. Not even Chairman Deng Xiaoping did that. Het Financieele Dagblad wrote the following snippets about this extraordinary event:

With a formerly unheard of anti-corruption campaign, Xi got rid of the culture of bribery and self-enrichment within the [Communist] Party. He also managed to get his opponents out of the way. Xi, who has shown himself as a strong advocate of free trade this year, has used his first five year stint as Chairman to get everybody on the same page again within the party. A strong party also offers him the chance to let China shine again on the global theatre.

Last week, Xi’s visions were recorded in the constitution of the party; an honour that was only granted to Mao during his government. Also his Silk Route initiative and his 'Theory of Reforms at the Supply Side' are now official part of the foundations of the party. And now that a large share of the seats in the 25-headed Politbureau is filled with confidants from the so-called ‘Zhejiang faction’, nothing stands in Xi’s way anymore to shape the future of the country to his image.

Xi Jinping, as a guardian of free trade. Will that be good news for the rest of the world?

Not per sé, when we have closely followed the events surrounding the Spratly Islands, quite recently occupied and confiscated by China, based upon the notion “that China has the biggest navy in the region and can kick anybody’s *ss at will”.

And we must also not forget the increasingly shrill tone-of-voice that China utters in the direction of Taiwan, the “renegade province”, eternally belonging to the Chinese motherland in China’s vision. Taiwan is also a very good example of China’s recently refound self-confidence and increasingly ‘assertive’ behaviour against the rest of the (Western) world.

Already for years now is China building upon their network of ‘vassal states’ in Africa, Latin America and even Europe (Greece!), via their (in)famous soft power and influence. With gifts in the form of ‘beads and mirrors’ for the local rulers, new roads and infrastructure (mostly in favour of China's mining companies and traders itself) and engineering and agricultural knowledge (again mostly to the advantage of China), they have put those local rulers in their debt. 

Through these vassal states and trading partners, the Chinese powers-that-be secured their own country of food, other agricultural produce and invaluable raw materials for their huge domestic “production apparatus”, that must keep on running to keep potential domestic unrest under control.

Even the most developed and civilized countries, like The Netherlands, fall for the tinsel that China has to offer. In the Dutch case this Chinese tinsel was formed by two giant pandas, that could be rented for a limited period of time and after meeting numerous constraints and (financial) conditions [i.e. link points to a Dutch-spoken documentary about the Dutch-Chinese Panda Lobby- EL].

Even though this black-and-white coloured ‘favour’ was disguised as a gift to celebrate the good mutual relations between China and The Netherlands, it is probably used as a bait to reel the Dutch hearts and minds in. We are your friend with great power and might. Don’t talk with us boldly and don’t criticize us for our human rights, or else we take your toy away...

One reason why especially the local rulers in Africa and Latin America love China so much, is that the country does not interfere in local politics. It does not lecture them about human rights, widespread corruption, violence and intimidation around elections or about excessive differences between the poor and the rich and other utterly annoying stuff for these rulers. 

“You simply supply the goods and raw materials that we want and you let us lay down the infrastructure that we need to ship everything out. And you don't ask any hard question. We supply then the money, infrastructure and weapons that you want and need. That’s the whole deal...”. This seems to be China’s vision on foreign politics. 

And this works both ways: China loves doing business with these “dubious” regimes, because they don’t ask any questions about the very limited and even diminishing personal freedom in China or about the hampered human rights situation. 

  

This in contrary to Western governments and NGO’s, that constantly bang the drum about the human rights in many African and Latin American countries, but also about the human rights situation in China itself, with respect to the own population and also Tibet. 

In case of the Chinese visit to the United Kingdom in 2015, this 'blahblah' about freedom for the Tibetans and human rights almost led to a diplomatic ‘situation’, when Prince Charles refused to visit the official state banquet, offered by the Queen to honour the Chinese President Xi Jinping and his entourage. Such incidents could lead to loss of face for the Chinese leaders and must be avoided at all cost.

So both China and their vassal states in Latin America and Africa are probably very satisfied about the current diplomatic and political situation between them. However, what the rulers of these states might forget, is that China operates with solely one purpose in mind: China’s wellbeing, economic growth and secured future, via a leading role in the world. China has a long term vision in mind, in which China and China only prevails. All else is of less importance.

The soft way or the hard way, China always gets what it wants. 

And China still do so from the position of ‘a benevolent, but misunderstood underdog with a good heart, but with a lot of enemies in the world’. In their own vision, China has a good heart, but the bad people in the rest of the (Western) world constantly force this ‘sleeping giant’ to defend itself in any which way.

The Financial Times wrotes the following upon Xi’s and China’s foreign policy for the imminent future:

Winning “hearts and minds” at home and abroad through United Front [the official Chinese organization charged with the execution of China’s foreign policy] work is crucial to realising the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese people”, Mr Xi has said. Yet the type of power exercised by the cadres who work behind the neoclassical façade of 135 Fuyou Street is often anything but soft.

A teaching manual for [United Front’s] cadres, obtained by the Financial Times, sets out at length and in detail the organisation’s global mission in language that is intended both to beguile and intimidate.

It exhorts cadres to be gracious and inclusive as they try to “unite all forces that can be united” around the world. But it also instructs them to be ruthless by building an “iron Great Wall” against “enemy forces abroad” who are intent on splitting China’s territory or hobbling its development.

“Enemy forces abroad do not want to see China rise and many of them see our country as a potential threat and rival, so they use a thousand ploys and a hundred strategies to frustrate and repress us,” according to the book, titled the “China United Front Course Book”.

Merriden Varrall, director at the Lowy Institute, an Australian think-tank, says that under Mr Xi there has been a distinct toughening in China’s soft power focus. The former emphasis on reassuring others that China’s rise will be peaceful is giving way to a more forceful line. “There has been a definite shift in emphasis since Xi Jinping took over,” says Ms Varrall. “There is still a sense that reassuring others is important, but there is also a sense that China must dictate how it’s perceived and that the world is biased against China.”

The red and bold text says it all: “Reassuring others about China peaceful politics is still important, but not so important anymore. Most important is now that we get what we want and that other (non-Western) countries buy our story about good China versus the bad and hostile Western world”.

This new, more aggressive and slightly envious and frustrated foreign policy stands not on its own these days. 

To the contrary: it fits very well in the current, disturbing trend of the ‘political roosters’, that are nowadays leading the world’s largest and most influential nations. Leaders that seem to operate from an alleged inferiority complex within themselves or their country and don’t tolerate opposition from domestic sources, as well from abroad.

President Donald Trump, Rodrigo Duterte of the Phillippines, Recep Erdoğan of Turkey and Vladimir Putin of Russia are just a few textbook examples of such political roosters, just like 'spiritual leader' Lech Kaczynski of Poland, and President Viktor Órban of Hungary. 

President Xi Jinping, in spite of his soft, slightly aloof and shy appearance, has just become one of these roosters too. And the rest of the world will know this very soon...

What could be the consequences of this new Chinese policy for the rest of the world? I expect not only stronger bonds between China and its vassal states, but also between China and the aforementioned, like-minded leaders at the periphery of the Western world.

President Duterte of the Phillippines, President Erdoğan of Turkey and President Putin of Russia are among the leaders, with whom I expect China to want a stronger connection, just as with the leadership of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran and (perhaps also) Syria. 

Those are countries with (allegedly) a strong bias against the Western world and with the oil, gas or other raw materials that China needs. And very important: with the political influence in their region that makes them potentially important strongholds for China.

And in Europe I expect the same to happen with Greece, Hungary, Poland, the United Kingdom (i.e. in spite of ‘Charlesgate’) and perhaps even Spain and Ukraine. Those are all countries that have their ‘issues’ with the European Union, due to the domestic political situation or due to their exit from the EU, in case of the UK. There is nothing wrong with a good handshake, when this hand is filled with a fistful of dollars or yuans.

At the other side of the spectrum there are the countries that dare to oppose to China’s will and political ambitions. Taiwan, the United States (the Spratly Islands(!)), North Korea and Vietnam are all among the countries that could have to deal with China’s increased self-confidence and pizzaz soon.

Especially, when they refuse the Chinese need for ‘Lebensraum’ (i.e. the contaminated German word from the Second World War for ‘living space’) and unification of the mother land, with respect to Taiwan. Or when they don't listen to China closely enough (i.e. North Korea and especially its stubborn leader Kim Jung-Un). 

The first (luckily verbal) scrimmages between the American and Chinese navy, regarding the Spratly's, could act as a warning that China plays for keeps and does not draw back automatically anymore, when somebody shouts ‘stop’.

Together with the concealed forest fire, which is the North Korean situation and the tensions in the Middle East (Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq) and Eastern Europe (Russia vs Ukraine and the Baltic States), the new Chinese ‘assertiveness’ could lead to an explosive mixture on a global scale. Especially now that the White House in Washington is inhabited by a short-fused, utterly inexperienced and impulsive political rookie in the form of American President Donald Trump.

There is, however, one big advantage: the Chinese empire thinks in a scale of hundreds, if not thousands of years. This means that Xi Jinping, as a true son of this empire, will probably not fall in the pitfalls of the unexperienced Western leaders, by wanting too much too soon. He and his country have time and can be patient.

Even the new “Mao Zedong Light” understands that his power is limited, when he doesn’t use it wisely and with restraint. I therefore expect that President Xi will be patient indeed, as he understands that he will have nothing left, if he blows up everything on a global scale. That is a sort of relief for Taiwan and for the United States.

Even though Taiwan may be put under more economic and political pressure to give up their ‘rogue nation’ attitude (i.e. in the eyes of the Chinese) and return to the lap of the People’s Republic of China, I expect that this is all what will happen within the coming years. 

The stakes of an armed (or even nuclear) conflict with the United States are simply too high for China to run this risk.

And that is slightly comforting in these roaring years...