When you look at the face of Chinese President and
Chairman of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, you don’t see the face of a
potentate or a powerhungry epicure, in my humble opinion. It is rather the face
of a friendly, somewhat shy and restrained, but nevertheless smart uncle, who knows a lot
about life.
Yet, this man is responsible for arguably the greatest political
revolution in recent Chinese history, since the days of legendary leaders Deng
Xiaoping and Mao Zedong. And also for the most aggressive Chinese foreign policy
since decades.
In his recent speech as Chairman of the Communist Party, in the eve of his second term as Chinese President, President Xi has officially made his grand visions on the development of China part of the official lecture of this Communist Party. And that was something
that no Chinese Chairman/President ever managed during life, since
Chairman Mao. Not even Chairman Deng Xiaoping did that. Het Financieele Dagblad
wrote the following snippets about this
extraordinary event:
With
a formerly unheard of anti-corruption campaign, Xi got rid of the culture of
bribery and self-enrichment within the [Communist] Party. He also managed to
get his opponents out of the way. Xi, who has shown himself as a strong
advocate of free trade this year, has used his first five year stint as
Chairman to get everybody on the same page again within the party. A strong
party also offers him the chance to let China shine again on the global
theatre.
Last
week, Xi’s visions were recorded in the constitution of the party; an honour
that was only granted to Mao during his government. Also his Silk Route
initiative and his 'Theory of Reforms at the Supply Side' are now official part
of the foundations of the party. And now that a large share of the seats in the
25-headed Politbureau is filled with confidants from the so-called ‘Zhejiang
faction’, nothing stands in Xi’s way anymore to shape the future of the country to his image.
Xi Jinping, as a guardian of free trade. Will that be
good news for the rest of the world?
Not per sé, when we have closely followed the events surrounding the Spratly
Islands, quite recently occupied and confiscated by
China, based upon the notion “that China
has the biggest navy in the region and can kick anybody’s *ss at will”.
And we must also not forget the increasingly shrill
tone-of-voice that China utters in the direction of Taiwan, the “renegade
province”, eternally belonging to the Chinese motherland in China’s vision.
Taiwan is also a very good example of China’s recently refound self-confidence
and increasingly ‘assertive’ behaviour against the rest of the (Western)
world.
Already for years now is China building upon their
network of ‘vassal states’ in Africa, Latin America and even Europe (Greece!),
via their (in)famous soft power and influence. With gifts in the form of ‘beads
and mirrors’ for the local rulers, new roads and infrastructure (mostly in
favour of China's mining companies and traders itself) and engineering and agricultural knowledge (again mostly
to the advantage of China), they have put those local rulers in their debt.
Through
these vassal states and trading partners, the Chinese powers-that-be secured
their own country of food, other agricultural produce and invaluable raw materials
for their huge domestic “production apparatus”, that must keep on running to keep potential domestic unrest under control.
Even the most developed and civilized countries, like The
Netherlands, fall for the tinsel that China has to offer. In the Dutch case
this Chinese tinsel was formed by two
giant pandas, that
could be rented for a limited period of time and after meeting numerous
constraints and (financial) conditions [i.e. link points to a Dutch-spoken documentary about the Dutch-Chinese Panda Lobby- EL].
Even though this black-and-white coloured ‘favour’ was disguised
as a gift to celebrate the good mutual relations between China and The
Netherlands, it is probably used as a bait to reel the Dutch hearts and minds in. We are your friend with great power and might. Don’t talk with us boldly and don’t
criticize us for our human rights, or else we take your toy away...
One reason why especially the local rulers in Africa and
Latin America love China so much, is that the country does not interfere in
local politics. It does not lecture them about human rights, widespread corruption, violence and intimidation around elections or about excessive differences between the poor and the rich and other utterly annoying stuff for these rulers.
“You simply supply the goods and raw materials that we want and you let us lay down the infrastructure that we need to ship everything out. And you don't ask any hard question. We supply then the money,
infrastructure and weapons that you want and need. That’s the whole deal...”. This seems to be China’s
vision on foreign politics.
And this works both ways: China loves doing
business with these “dubious” regimes, because they don’t ask any questions
about the very limited and even diminishing personal freedom in China or about the hampered
human rights situation.
This in contrary to Western governments and NGO’s, that
constantly bang the drum about the human rights in many African and Latin
American countries, but also about the human rights situation in China itself,
with respect to the own population and also Tibet.
In case of the Chinese visit
to the United Kingdom in 2015, this 'blahblah' about freedom for the Tibetans and human rights almost led to a diplomatic ‘situation’,
when Prince Charles refused to visit the official state banquet, offered by the
Queen to honour the Chinese President Xi Jinping and his entourage. Such incidents could lead to loss of face for the Chinese leaders and must be avoided at all cost.
So both China and their vassal states in Latin America
and Africa are probably very satisfied about the current diplomatic and political situation
between them. However, what the rulers of these states might forget, is that China operates
with solely one purpose in mind: China’s wellbeing, economic growth and secured
future, via a leading role in the world. China has a long term vision in mind,
in which China and China only prevails. All else is of less importance.
The soft way or the hard way, China always gets what it
wants.
And China still do so from the position of ‘a benevolent, but misunderstood underdog with a good heart, but with a
lot of enemies in the world’. In their own vision, China has a good heart, but the bad people in
the rest of the (Western) world constantly force this ‘sleeping giant’ to
defend itself in any which way.
The Financial Times wrotes the following upon Xi’s and China’s foreign policy for the
imminent future:
Winning
“hearts and minds” at home and abroad through United Front [the official
Chinese organization charged with the execution of China’s foreign policy] work
is crucial to realising the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese people”, Mr Xi
has said. Yet the type of power exercised by the cadres who work behind the
neoclassical façade of 135 Fuyou Street is often anything but soft.
A teaching manual for [United Front’s] cadres, obtained by the Financial Times, sets out at length and in detail the organisation’s global mission in language that is intended both to beguile and intimidate.
It
exhorts cadres to be gracious and inclusive as they try to “unite all forces
that can be united” around the world. But it also instructs them to be ruthless
by building an “iron Great Wall” against “enemy forces abroad” who are intent
on splitting China’s territory or hobbling its development.
“Enemy
forces abroad do not want to see China rise and many of them see our country as
a potential threat and rival, so they use a thousand ploys and a hundred
strategies to frustrate and repress us,” according to the book, titled the
“China United Front Course Book”.
Merriden
Varrall, director at the Lowy Institute, an Australian think-tank, says that
under Mr Xi there has been a distinct toughening in China’s soft power focus.
The former emphasis on reassuring others that China’s rise will be peaceful is
giving way to a more forceful line. “There has been a definite shift in emphasis since Xi Jinping
took over,” says Ms Varrall. “There is still a sense that reassuring others is
important, but there is also a sense that China must dictate how it’s perceived
and that the world is biased against China.”
The red and bold text says it all: “Reassuring others about China peaceful politics is still important,
but not so important anymore. Most important is now that we get what we want
and that other (non-Western) countries buy our story about good China versus
the bad and hostile Western world”.
This new, more aggressive and slightly envious and
frustrated foreign policy stands not on its own these days.
To the contrary: it
fits very well in the current, disturbing trend of the
‘political roosters’, that
are nowadays leading the world’s largest and most influential nations. Leaders that seem to operate
from an alleged inferiority complex within themselves or their country and
don’t tolerate opposition from domestic sources, as well from abroad.
President Donald Trump, Rodrigo Duterte of the
Phillippines, Recep Erdoğan of Turkey and Vladimir Putin of Russia are just a
few textbook examples of such political roosters, just like 'spiritual leader' Lech Kaczynski of
Poland, and President Viktor Órban of Hungary.
President Xi Jinping, in spite of his soft,
slightly aloof and shy appearance, has just become one of these roosters too. And the rest of the world will know this very soon...
What could be the consequences of this new Chinese policy
for the rest of the world? I expect not only stronger bonds between China and its
vassal states, but also between China and the aforementioned, like-minded
leaders at the periphery of the Western world.
President Duterte of the Phillippines,
President Erdoğan of Turkey and President Putin of Russia are among the leaders,
with whom I expect China to want a stronger connection, just as with the
leadership of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Iran and (perhaps also) Syria.
Those are countries with (allegedly) a strong bias against the Western world and with the oil, gas or
other raw materials that China needs. And very important: with the political
influence in their region that makes them potentially important strongholds for
China.
And in Europe I expect the same to happen with Greece,
Hungary, Poland, the United Kingdom (i.e. in spite of ‘Charlesgate’) and perhaps
even Spain and Ukraine. Those are all countries that have their ‘issues’ with the
European Union, due to the domestic political situation or due to their exit
from the EU, in case of the UK. There is nothing wrong with a good handshake, when this hand is
filled with a fistful of dollars or yuans.
At the other side of the spectrum there are the countries
that dare to oppose to China’s will and political ambitions. Taiwan, the United
States (the Spratly Islands(!)), North Korea and Vietnam are all among the
countries that could have to deal with China’s increased self-confidence and
pizzaz soon.
Especially, when they refuse the Chinese need for ‘Lebensraum’
(i.e. the contaminated German word from the Second World War for ‘living space’)
and unification of the mother land, with respect to Taiwan. Or when they don't listen to China closely enough (i.e. North Korea and especially its stubborn leader Kim Jung-Un).
The first (luckily
verbal) scrimmages between the American and Chinese navy, regarding the Spratly's, could act as a warning
that China plays for keeps and does not draw back automatically anymore, when somebody
shouts ‘stop’.
Together with the concealed forest fire, which is the North
Korean situation and the tensions in the Middle East (Turkey, Saudi Arabia,
Iran and Iraq) and Eastern Europe (Russia vs Ukraine and the Baltic States), the
new Chinese ‘assertiveness’ could lead to an explosive mixture on a global
scale. Especially now that the White House in Washington is inhabited by a short-fused, utterly inexperienced and impulsive political rookie in the form of American President Donald Trump.
There is, however, one big advantage: the Chinese empire
thinks in a scale of hundreds, if not thousands of years. This means that Xi
Jinping, as a true son of this empire, will probably not fall in the pitfalls
of the unexperienced Western leaders, by wanting too much too soon. He and his
country have time and can be patient.
Even the new “Mao Zedong Light” understands that his
power is limited, when he doesn’t use it wisely and with restraint. I therefore
expect that President Xi will be patient indeed, as he understands that he will
have nothing left, if he blows up everything on a global scale. That is a sort
of relief for Taiwan and for the United States.
Even though Taiwan may be put under more economic and
political pressure to give up their ‘rogue nation’ attitude (i.e. in the eyes
of the Chinese) and return to the lap of the People’s Republic of China, I expect that this
is all what will happen within the coming years.
The stakes of an armed (or
even nuclear) conflict with the United States are simply too high for China to run this risk.
And that is slightly comforting in these roaring years...
