Never a dull moment in Turkey, the Mediterranean country
with its pivotal role in the Middle East and its strategic position around the
Black Sea, where it is keeper of the only entrance to the Mediterranean Sea
(and thus to open waters): the Bosporus seagate in the city of Instanbul.
Turkey is arguably the most important member of the NATO
defence organization; not only due to the aforementioned strategic position both around the Black Sea and
in the Middle-East, but also due to the fact that it has the biggest army
outside the United States.
Turkey's current president and former prime minister Recep Tayyip
Erdoğan is pursuing a double, barely hidden agenda after his rise to power that started early in the 21st Century:
- The expansion and
intensification of his political (now presidential) powers, as well as the
powers of his AK party (the
Justice and Development party), that he founded in 2001.
- The famous quote of French ruler Louis IV, “l’etat, c’est moi” (i.e. 'I am the state'), seems to be Erdoğan's personal motto;
- An sunni-islamic and monotheistic Turkey with little breathing room
for Christian, shia-Islamic and non-religious minorities, as well as for the Kurds who remain being seen as 'terrorists';
- A beacon in and for the Arab world, instead of being a relatively neutral country on the brink between East and West.
- This means the abolishment of the adamantly secular state, with in it the relative freedom of religion, that has been defended by especially the Turkish army, since the days of Kemal Atatürk.
While the unmistakable turn of Turkey into a more
Middle-Eastern, Islamic, “Arabic” and even dictatorial(?) direction has not been missed by
the Western and Russian leaders and media, this was mostly ignored as long as
Turkey fulfilled its obligations towards the NATO and the EU and played the
massively important role of bridgehead for the Middle East.
European and Russian tourists were still very welcome at the
Turkish coastline, where heavily subsidized, “all inclusive” megahotels had
clouded the skylines of the coastal cities Antalya, Alanya, Marmaris and Bodrum.
The
fact that the self-indulgent eating and drinking habits of the Western and
Russian tourists, as well as their “decadent”, Western clothing style on and off the beaches, were
offending the very strict rules of the Islam, was turned a blind eye to by the
local authorities. Those tourists brought in a lot of spending money and helped
to build up the booming Turkish economy.
And as far as Russian president Vladimir Putin concerned: he understood the mounting hunger for power and increasingly dictatorial trademarks of president Recep
Tayyip Erdoğan, but they did not bothered him at first, as long as his civil
and war vessels could sail through the Bosporus seagate and his countrymen were
welcome in Turkey for their holidays.
This all changed under the influence of an incident, in
which a Russian jetfighter – being on a war mission in Syria – was gunned down
after crossing the Turkish border during his flight. One of the pilots was
killed by Syrian insurgents during his landing attempt with the ejection seat and the
other pilot could barely escape alive.
The order to shoot down the Russian plane was initially
defended fiercely by President Erdoğan, but an outraged President Putin
immediately established a “de facto” boycott of Turkey, by stopping all flights
to Turkey and urgently advicing his countrymen to not travel there for their
holidays.
In those days, I wrote the following lines:
What matters [...] is that it has been a reckless and extremely
dangerous move of Turkey, which could have dramatically increased the
international tensions in the world (and it still could do so in the near
future).
To make things worse:
both the ego’s of presidents Recep Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin prevent them from
simply saying ‘sorry’ and admitting that they have acted ‘wrongly’ in this
matter.
No, instead they turn
into an international ‘cockfight’ in which they try to punish each other with
inconsiderate economic measures (‘an eye for an eye’), loud sabre rattling and
political charivari. This would not be a very big problem, when Turkey would
not be one of the most prominent NATO members with arguably the most strategic
position in the Middle-East, as heeder of the entrance to the Black Sea
(through the Bosporus seagate).
Even though the NATO
is probably absolutely not willing to risk an ‘all out’ war with Russia, on
behalf of Turkey, the odds for this are increasing when the tensions between
Russia and Turkey keep on mounting. In one of the most unstable regions in the
world, this is almost equal to committing suicide.
Perhaps one of the
biggest problems is that both the NATO and the European Union cannot force
Turkey to ‘shut up’ and sweet-talk itself into a regained mutual understanding
with Russia.
The NATO desperately
needs Turkey as an operating base for the Middle East and as entrance for its
seafleet to the Black Sea. Arguing with Erdoğan could lead to undesired
reactions of the Turkish president.
This confrontation between Russia and prominent NATO member
Turkey was a serious crack in the relations between Russia and Turkey at one
hand, but also between Turkey and the Western world at the other hand.
Even though the
NATO and the whole Western world openly declared to stand behind their close ally
Turkey, some serious frowns were shown in the various Western government seats, when this potentially dangerous event occured.
However, as Turkey reached out a helping hand to the
struggling EU – with respect to the refugee conundrum – and Dutch PM Mark Rutte and German Chancellor Angela Merkel established a deal with Erdoğan with respect to taking back illegal Syrian refugees, the situation between Turkey and Europe
improved quickly again.
And in a later stage (i.e. a few weeks ago), Erdoğan decided
to count his blessings, as he sent out an apology to the Kremlin for the
jet fighter incident after all. This apology was received with a benign smile of “Vladimir
Vladimirovich“ and an abolishment of the Russian boycott of Turkey followed soon.
Yet:
- the closeness of Turkey to the bloody and dangerous civil war in neighbouring country Syria;
- the war blazing up between the Turkish government and
the Kurdian population inside and outside the country (i.e. living in Syria and Iraq);
- the relative sympathy of
president Erdoğan for ALL the adversaries of Syrian president Bashir Assad – not to mention his alleged, candid cooperation
with IS, reputedly enabling (illegal) oil trade from the sieged areas of Iraq;
- and especially a series of very deadly, terrorist attacks at different spots in Turkey,
And
in spite of Erdoğan’s apology to the
Kremlin, the Turkish president behaved more and more authoritarian and imperative
towards the opposition, as well as towards the other religions in his country.
That was the situation until last Friday (e.g. July 15,
2016), when the world was suddenly alarmed by the message that insurgents in
the Turkish army had started a coup d’etat attempt against the government of President
Erdoğan.
A few tense hours followed in which different army squadrons fired
shots at each other, as well as at civilians, members of parliament and policemen, from helicopters and
jet planes. The fate of the president was unclear until Erdoğan suddenly
appeared on Turkish television and urged his grassroots – via video and SMS – to massively
protest against this coup d’etat. This event was the beginning of the end for the
insurgents.
After the coup d’etat was finally over the next day, the
Turkish government started a purging process in which not only the army
insurgents, but also representatives of the legal system (around 3000 judges
and justices) and other ‘enemies of the state’ were arrested and taken away to
prisons or large public places (i.e. sports halls) for a (probably brutal) interrogation.
The opposition of the AK Party, as well as the remaining free media and
journalists in Turkey, were intimidated to not comment too loudly upon the destabilizing
political situation and the deteriorating human rights in Turkey.
Especially the ubiquitous arrests of insurgents and ‘the political
and societal enemies’ of Erdoğan reputedly all happened according to lists, carrying the
names of these enemies. Allegedly these lists all had been prepared in advance and they had been ready for
usage before the coup d’etat even took place.
Particularly this circumstance
spurred the stories and conspiracy theories that the coup d’etat was actually "pre-cooked" and perhaps even a total fake, as it would have been orchestrated by persons within the AK Party itself.
One name for “the person responsible for this coup d’etat” was
mentioned very quickly and convincingly by the Turkish government. That was the name of the spiritual leader of the opposition against
President Erdoğan: Fethullah Gülen. And that is where the global, political component of this coup d'etat started.
Fethullah Gülen, a Muslim preacher and political leader, has been living
in a self-imposed exile in the United States (i.e. in Saylorsburg,
Pennsylvania) since 1999. Even though Gülen and Erdoğan started as ‘partners in
crime’ against the secular government that ruled Turkey at the end of the 20th
Century, their relation soured dramatically in 2013 when Erdoğan accused Gülen
of spurring an anti-corruption investigation against Erdoğan and his political
friends. In return, Gülen was put on a Turkish most-wanted-terrorist list and
the United States were asked for his extradition, to which the USA did not
comply.
Last Saturday – the day after the coup – the extremely
important NATO military airport Incirlik in Turkey (from which the daily
barrages of the US in Syria take place) was closed down by the Turkish
government.
For a brief period, it was forbidden for the US to use this
airport, as Erdoğan both wanted to punish the US for offering hospitality to
Gülen and for “being the alleged masterminds behind this coup”. Besides that, he also wanted
to remove possible insurgents within the Turkish airforce from this airbase.
This temporary closedown of the indispensable NATO airbase Incirlik was a signal that the US
government – and as a matter of fact the whole western world, as well as the
Kremlin – did not misunderstood!
Kerry was “not
amused”, to say the least, about the ongoing purge in Turkey, as well
as the emerging situation regarding the NATO airbase and the accusations and
threats uttered by Recep Erdoğan in the aftermath of the coup d’etat. The
following snippets were printed in Foreign Policy:
Secretary of State
John Kerry warned the Turkish government Monday that its actions could have
consequences for the NATO alliance if it goes too far with its ongoing purge of
thousands of military personnel, judges, and police officers accused of
involvement in last weekend’s failed coup attempt.
The U.S. diplomat’s
remarks, delivered at a meeting of the European Union’s 28 foreign ministers,
came as authorities acting on behalf of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan sacked more than 8,000 police officers and
officials in a massive effort launched in the aftermath of the coup, according
to the Washington Post and Reuters.
“A lot of people have
been arrested and arrested very quickly,” Kerry told journalists. “The level of
vigilance and scrutiny is going to be very significant in the days ahead.”
“We will certainly
support bringing the perpetrators of the coup to justice but we also caution
against a reach that goes beyond that and stress the importance of the
democratic rule being upheld,” Kerry said.
That all is a diplomatic way to say that the “sh*t is hitting
the fan”, as far as American Secretary of State John Kerry is concerned.
Even though the 'Incirlik' NATO base closedown was not mentioned
in the Foreign Policy article, it must have made a real dent in the American
trust in their Turkish NATO partner. Not being able to use Incirlik airbase means
that nearly all NATO operations in the Middle East are close to ‘impossible’.
And that was that...
Little more than half a year ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
of Turkey managed to infuriate the Russians with his gung ho attack upon the
Russian jet fighter, after it illegally crossing the Turkish borders. In spite
of the cautious ‘détente’ between Turkey and Russia starting after Erdoğan’s
apology towards the Kremlin, the political situation between these countries is yet far from normal
again.
And now Erdoğan has alienated the American government with:
- his accusations and demands, regarding Fethullah Gülen and the American role in the failed coup d'etat;
- his temporary closedown of
Incirlik airbase and;
- his dramatic, allegedly ‘precooked’ purge within his country, in which he hunts down all his political enemies and even wants to reinstate the death penalty for the insurgents.
European countries with large Turkish population groups,
like Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands, intensely feel the effects of the
coup d’etat on their own home turf. Erdoğan badgered the pro-AK party groups in these countries to
protest against the pro-Gülen groups. Fierce protests and small riots in a few large cities within these countries were the
result of Erdoğan’s call.
And so the failed coup d'etat might have long-lasting political implications on a global scale.
Nevertheless: to the uninformed reader it might seem that Erdoğan is getting
into a more and more difficult position, after alienating both Russia and the United
States. And of course, there WILL be a few cracks in their relations with Turkey. But please look at things objectively:
- Turkey is the
gateway to the Middle East and is a leading and authorative country in that
area;
- Incirlik is an indispensable airbase for NATO operations, for which there is hardly an alternative now and in the distant future;
- Istanbul is the gateway to the Black Sea for both Russia (i.e.
to get out of it) and the United States (i.e. to get into it);
- Turkey is protecting Europe from massive numbers of
refugees. These refugees can and will be used as “leverage”, when Europe does
not play the right tune towards Erdoğan's ears;
- Turkey is the second largest NATO partner with the second
largest and second most versatile army. Turkey being kicked out of the NATO
would leave a void with the size of a large meteorite crater. This will therefore never
happen;
- President Erdoğan’s authority among the Turkish population, inside and
outside his home turf, is nearly undisputed, as the failed coup has proven.
- Unless Erdoğan is removed by a successful (!) coup in the coming months or years, he will maintain playing a pivotal role in the world for these very reasons.
Whatever happens in the aftermath of the Turkish coup d’etat,
the United States, Europe and Turkey will remain close partners inside and
outside the NATO.
Not out of mutual “love and compassion”, but out of sheer
necessity for all parties involved, as they need each other desperately. Every
other outcome is highly unlikely...
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