If one thing becomes clear about the mounting conflict
between Ukraine and Russia, it is that its unpredictability makes this conflict very
dangerous indeed.
While all parties involved – Russia, Ukraine, Europe, the NATO and the US –
pay lip service to the concept of détante and diminishing the mounting instability
and warmongering, all their actual actions show the total opposite.
Like in all international conflicts, all parties
involved in the conflict seem to have hidden agendas. This given has as a logical
consequence, that there is a massive amount of propaganda and lying involved from
all sides. No political leader involved in this conundrum should be believed at
face value.
Nevertheless, the build-up of the whole story runs through
very familiar lines:
- The Russians are the ‘bad guys’; they have eagerly fulfilled this role since the Second World War, so what else is new;
- The European and the US leaders, as well as the NATO, are obviously ‘the good
guys’;
- The new Ukrainian leadership wants to hook up with the European leaders and the NATO, so hey… when we follow the principle that ‘the enemy of our enemy is our friend’, they must be the good guys too!
It is needless to deny that Russia indeed hijacked the
Crimean region with a sneaky, covert operation.
There is also little doubt that
Russia has substantial involvement in the mounting unrest in East-Ukraine. On the other hand, it should not be ruled out that there are genuine worries of the
ethnical Russian population behind it, spurred by the earlier Ukrainian attempts to
outlaw the Russian language and limit the rights of the ethnical Russians.
From an economic point of view, one should not forget
that Russia
has to defend its gas supply through the Ukraine (its ‘GDP lifeline’) and that the country wants to stay the
number one energy supplier for Europe. As the Russian manufacturing industries – and as a matter of fact, the Russian economy as a whole – still lead a languishing existence, the delivery of gas and oil to Europe (or China) is Russia's bedrock.
On the other hand, there is the situation with Vladimir
Putin in his familiar ‘Marlon Brando’ role, as an insulted ‘capo di tutti capi’:
Putin feels that he is not really taken
seriously anymore in the Western world. In order to punish this ‘disrespectful’ Western attitude,
Putin wants to take revenge. He does so, by constantly changing his approach, while setting the situation
in the Ukraine to his hand – with continuous success. On Putin’s behalf, Ukraine seems merely like a game of chicken
with the West, instead of the country being an area that he wants to conquer.
However, also the motivations of the Western allies are
not so honorable and straightforward, as they might seem to the uninquiring
bystanders.
The leaders of the European council all have their own
worries: some of them want to show to the Kremlin who is really the boss and also that
Europe is not dependent on Russian gas anymore: a.o. French president François Hollande and – presumably
– British PM David Cameron.
Others, however, (a.o. German chancellor Angela Merkel and Dutch
PM Mark Rutte) want to preserve their very lucrative exports to Russia: they
bark a little and go through the motions, but they certainly don’t want to bite…!
The best example of this schizophrenic politics lately was Dutch Foreign Affairs' Minister Frans Timmermans, who reluctantly cancelled a state
visit to Russia with an extensive Dutch trade delegation, but categorically denied
that this was a sanction, although it looked, felt and smelt like it.
The European Commission feels that the future of the
European Union is currently on the line. This is due to the rise of leftwing and rightwing populism in Europe,
with their anti-EU stance and their growing numbers of grassroots. This populism shocked the
‘middle of the road’ politicians, who now feel forced to openly question the blessings and the influence of the EU, in order not to lose more votes to the populists.
That is why the European Commission is so eager to
welcome ‘lost sheep’ Ukraine in its
flock, in spite of the monstrous financial/economic burdens that such a step
could have for the EU itself. In fact, so eager that the EC assumed the ostrich
position and totally ignored the vast strategic consequences of this step for
Russia and for themselves. The Ukraine is a country that is openly happy about the European Union and happiness about the EU is something that the European Commission really likes and cherishes.
And the NATO?!
This organization has turned from the most
important peacekeeping operation in the Western world into ‘an organization
without a cause’. The NATO is frantically looking for a raison d’etre to substantiate
its enormous budgets and massive ranges of weaponry. Nothing helps better to achieve this goal, than mounting
tensions in the heart of Europe. And who can you better turn to in this
situation than the ‘mother of all cronies’ Vladimir Putin, who is more than
willing to help.
President Obama and the United States, on their behalf, feel
that there is something to gain in the current explosive situation. They have their considerable amounts of shale gas, that they can sell to a Europe, which is sick-and-tired
of the Russians and their gas.
As the situation is relatively safe and far away for the US, Obama
can scream and shout at Putin, without having to fear any serious consequences. Even a
regional war in Europe would have a very limited contamination risk for the
United States.
Besides that, it could be Obama’s chance to prove that he is "tough
on… something!" It might prevent him from being forgotten in the future, as a non-descript and
rather weak president.
And the Ukraine itself?!
In my opinion, one bunch of
parasites and scavengers on society has been replaced by another bunch: the
first bunch were Putin’s friends and the second bunch are ‘friends’ of the West. Of all the
good intentions that many people at Maidan Square had during the protests, most
have probably flooded down the drain, in the current atmosphere of ‘divide and
conquer’ that is ruling Ukraine.
The current government seems to be a mixture of oligarch business-men, ruthless, opportunistic politicians and ultra rightwing fanatics, with a dark past and (probably) a dark future.
The Ukraine wants to become a member of the European
Union AND of the NATO at the shortest possible notice. They want to do so, in order to tap in on the large subsidy flows coming from the EU and to escape from the Russian economic and military influence: by itself this
is a logical and defensible step for them.
Obviously, the new Ukrainian government wants to be
seen as the sole victims of the whole situation with Russia. To achieve this, the
country is constantly pointing at the mounting tensions between Russia and the
Ukraine and at the stationing of armed forces at the Russian borders: everything that Ukraine did was good and defensible, while everything that Russia did was bad!
On top of that, the new Ukrainian government is also busy
with calling the ethnical Russian protestors terrorists, in order to substantiate their deadly military approach against them: hence, the ATO (Anti Terror
Operation).
In my humble opinion, however, the ethnical Russian protestors (distinguished from genuine Russian military infiltrators) are obviously
not terrorists, as these people in fact hardly terrorize anybody. Instead, they defend their position, by taking over Ukrainian government buildings. However, the Ukrainian
government calling the Russian protestors ‘terrorists’ fits in the atmosphere
of deliberately mounting tensions.
This is the explosive and dangerous mix, which is at
play in the Ukraine.
And today – like business as usual – the Western
newsmedia (read: mainly the Anglo-Saxon newsmedia) were once again eager to
print the next verbal outburst by PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk of Ukraine. The
following snippets come from NBC:
Russia
"wants to start World War III" and Moscow's veiled threats of
military action could start an armed conflict in Europe, Ukraine's prime
minister said Friday,
Arseniy
Yatsenyuk made the comments a day after Russia said it had been
"forced" to start fresh military drills just over the border because
of increased activity by NATO and the Ukrainian military.
"Attempts
at military conflict in Ukraine will lead to a military conflict in Europe,''
Yatsenyuk told a cabinet meeting broadcast live and translated by Reuters. "The
world has not yet forgotten World War II, but Russia already wants to start
World War III."
Russian
President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Ukrainian attempts to drive
armed pro-Moscow separatists out of occupied buildings across the east of the
country would be met with "consequences."
Ukraine's
operation against the separatists - whom the West says are backed by Russia -
turned deadly Thursday amid reports that five pro-Russian militiamen had been
killed in the city of Slaviansk.
"There
has been no suspension of the ATO in connection to the threat of invasion by
Russia's armed forces," Interior Minister Arsen Avakov wrote on his
Facebook page, translated by Reuters. "The ATO goes on. The terrorists
should be on their guard around the clock. Civilians have nothing to
fear."
As far as I’m concerned, the whole story of ‘Russia
wanting to start World War III’ is needless and pointless fearmongering, only
aimed at involving the NATO in Ukraine’s situation. This is something that the
NATO should not do and should not desire at all. As a matter of fact, it shows the desperation of the current Ukrainian
government. Probably the whole situation will blow over in a few months, when everybody
comes to his senses again.
Nevertheless, in this situation, in which five
different parties all have different goals and keep their cards firmly to their
chest, the situation could run out of hand very easily, when all parties are calling each
other’s bluff.
I don’t believe in World War III and I certainly don’t
want this to happen. Neither want the US, the NATO, Russia and the European
Union, when they are in their right minds.
Still, in this particular case, which is currently creating
its own dynamics, everything could happen, unfortunately.
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