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Wednesday, 22 January 2014

While the politicians and pundits declare the economic crisis ‘finished’, the Dutch themselves become increasingly in arrears. It simply does not figure…

Today, the Dutch Bureau for Credit Registration (BKR) – a non-governmental organization which monitors the Dutch credit supply to individual citizens and their payment behaviour, on behalf of the banks and credit suppliers – presented its barometer for the second half of 2013.

Main conclusion: During the second half year of 2013, more than 20,000 additional consumers ended in arrears on their mortgage, loan or credit line.

Here are the pertinent snips:


During the last half year, there have been more than 20,000 additional customers with an arrears on their loan. At this moment, a total of 740,000 consumers is in financial trouble.

At this moment 8.6% of the consumers registered at BKR has a serious arrears. A half year ago this was 8.3%. Peter van den Bosch, executive director of BKR: ”Especially due to divorce and unemployment, the number of consumers with arrears has risen. Nevertheless, more than 91% of consumers pays back their loan in time”.

Although there are more people in arrears, the consumer becomes more cautious at the same time. “The number of people with a loan declines. Consumers also try to amortize their mortgage more rapidly. Consumers adapt themselves in times of economic hardship”, according to Van den Bosch.

This analysis, by Peter van den Bosch of the BKR, has a positive and a negative note:
  • Positive is that the people become more frugal and as a consequence will become less indebted eventually;
  • Negative is that the number of people in arrears grew rapidly in the second half of 2013. 

The latter seems to be in conflict with the positive vibe that a number politicians and pundits have spread lately.

Of course, I have lots of sympathy for every pundit and politician who declares the crisis over, like Dutch National Bank (DNB) chairman Klaas Knot and others did at the end of last year.

And last weekend, the Minister of Economic Affairs Henk Kamp even stated that the Dutch economy could grow with more than 1.5% per year soon; perhaps already in 2014.

I truly hope that these people are right, but I am fairly sure that they are wrong:
 
  • Not only for the fact that indebtedness in The Netherlands is probably still rather climbing than dropping;  
  • Or for the fact that the number of people in serious arrears grew with 2.78% in half a year to a total of 8.6%, according to the BKR.

No, probably it is the last paragraph that says it all (see red and bold text): the people became more frugal and started to unwind their indebtedness: 
  • By amortizing their term loans and revolving credit lines; 
  • And by speeding up the amortization of their mortgage; 
  • Or by adapting to the economic headwinds that we all are experiencing. 

In the long run, this is an excellent development: people with little or no debt can start consuming without financial worries again, when the time is right for it. 

At the mid-term, however, this development promises some years of very moderate growth, as the consumers also have to deal with:
  • Dropping prices for their houses;
  • More and higher direct and indirect taxes;
  • Looming unemployment, due to involuntary lay-offs and terminated temporary contracts;
  • And last, but not least: measures of wage restraint and sometimes even wage reduction coming from their employers.

And to be frank: the chance that the export will totally save the day for economic growth in The Netherlands, at the same time that there is a prolonged consumer strike and a crisis among Dutch small and medium enterprises (SME) and retail stores, is that of a snowball in hell. 

It just does not figure!

When the impression of the BKR is correct – and why shouldn’t it be(?) – and the people become indeed more frugal and slowly, but surely less indebted, than the growth of the people in arrears might indeed drop again in a few years.

Nevertheless, that year will surely not be 2014.  

And 2014 will also surely not be the year of 1.5+% economic growth in The Netherlands: scout’s honour!


Tuesday, 21 January 2014

The European Commission identifies the ‘working poor’ as a substantial hazard for the societal cohesion within the member states of the EU. They are right!

Today, European Commissioner László Andor of Employment, Social Affairs and Inclusion held a very inspiring speech. This speech was part of the events that accompanied  the ´Annual report on Economic and Social Development in Europe´.
 
László Andor’s speech was not so much inspiring as a result of his flashy presentation or the language he used. To the contrary: it was held in the typical European Union language ‘Brusselenglish’ and it was uttered by someone, who was never chosen for his charisma, but rather for his lack of it.

Nevertheless, the contents and context of this very short speech were remarkable and interesting. That is the reason that I want to spend this article on it.

Andor spoke about the need for the governments and employers of the EU member states to not only enable and create jobs for the unemployed Europeans, but to create jobs for them that would lift the European men and women out of poverty. That was a very important statement.

In his speech, Andor even dared to be iconoclastic against the neoliberal dogma that ‘social benefits make people lazy and self-satisfied’.

Here is the integral speech, accompanied by my comments:

A significant increase in the risk of poverty among the working age population is one of the most tangible social consequences of the financial and economic crisis in Europe. Even if unemployment is gradually reduced as currently projected, this may not be enough to reverse rising poverty, especially if wage polarisation continues, notably due to a rise in part-time work.

My comments: You can’t overstate the importance of this statement. That poverty and economic hardship is always looming for the unemployed people all over Europe, living from social benefits or not, can hardly be called surprising.

However, when unemployed people get a job, the ‘communis opinio’ is always that their worries are over and possible poverty will be behind them. That is not true, per sé. Even for employed European citizens, there is:
  • The race to the bottom for wages and fees, especially for lower class workers, contract workers and temporary workers. This race has been initiated at many European companies and government bodies;
    • as a consequence of the vast income differences between the West and East-European citizens;
    • as a consequence of the desire for companies and government bodies to cut expenses to the bone and strongly improve their margins;
  • The deterioration in the amount of full-time, fixed labour contracts, in favor of flex-contracts (f.i. zero hour contracts), temporary contracts, piecework contracts or part-time contracts with unfavourable working hours;
    • Postmen, who get paid per delivered letter, instead of being on a monthly salary;
    • Freelance truck-drivers, who have to wait by the phone, hoping that their principal calls with an assignment for them;
    • Germans who have a so-called mini-job: a part-time job, which pays only €400 per month, forcing the person with the job to look for additional work in order to earn enough income to live from;
  • The situation with workers from the low wage countries, who are sometimes working and living in West-Europe under circumstances, which are akin to modern slavery:
    • People, who are working very long hours without any of the normal rights and privileges that domestic workers have;
    • Workers, who have to pay a considerable share of their poor wages for housing and food, while their living circumstances are terrible.
These are all circumstances that many people and companies rather look away from, like an ostrich digging his head in the sand.

And of course, there is the issue of the growing divergence between the lowest wages and the highest salaries and fees in the European countries: a result of the mindset of the current generation of entrepreneurs, executives, managers and financial wizards, who often think that they have God-given talents, which should be rewarded accordingly.

Every attempt by politicians to level out these huge income differences, in favour of the classes with the lowest income, have been doomed. These attempts were met with massive protests, widescale political lobbying from special interest organizations and threats by people and companies to ‘move to other places’ if politics didn’t back down. Subsequently, the politicians scared away from this subject again.

In 2013 we have seen some tentative signs of economic recovery from the double-dip recession: GDP grew in the second and third quarters of the year, unemployment stopped rising and employment stopped falling. However, this recovery is still very modest and rather fragile. We have not yet begun to make up for the job losses of the past five years. Long-term unemployment is still on the rise in most Member States, as well as precarious jobs

My comments: Again this is an important statement. I definitely think that the massive unwinding of the excess capacity in many industries has not finished yet and won’t even finish before 2017 or 2018.

The building and construction industry, the automobile industry, the financial industry and the commercial services industry are among the industries, where capacity must be strongly diminished and/or where the ubiquitous automation and robotization takes away many hands-on production jobs; consequently, these jobs are on the line.

Besides that, as I mentioned earlier in this article, there is a large and growing group of European citizens – especially youngsters – whose flexible, piecework or part-time jobs offer so little security, that they can’t acquire things and services that many older Europeans take for granted: an owner-occupied house, a car, a healthcare insurance and a family, to mention a few. These people must live in the knowledge that their job can be finished by the day, when somebody calls in who asks less salary.

That is not a comforting thought…

Our analysis shows that getting a job is a way out of poverty in only half of the cases. Much depends on the type of job found, the level of pay and the number of hours worked. It also depends on the composition of the household and the working situation of the partner. Unfortunately we cannot say that having a job necessarily equates with a decent standard of living.

My comments: Amen!

In the past, the European Council, European Commission and national governments have too often left the topic of ‘fair remuneration’ to the market, where it does not belong in the first place.

National and supranational governments have to decide upon the level playing field, of which all workers must be part, and have to set the boundaries for fair payment and necessary working conditions, to which all employers must comply.

Jobs which violate the (supra)national minimal payment standards or that offer unfair working hours and conditions should be forbidden and – when necessary – even penalized by the (supra)national governments.

Poverty is especially likely to remain a growing problem if polarisation between high and low wages continues, and if more and more people are obliged to work only part-time. Therefore, policy-makers need to aim not only to create jobs, but also to ensure inclusive labour markets and decent working conditions. Moreover, governments must continue to provide income support and other social expenditure, including for households whose members do have a job, if people are to exit poverty.

The Review also shows that, contrary to many commonly held views, job seekers receiving unemployment benefits are more likely to get a job than those who don't receive benefits. Why is that? Because well-designed unemployment benefit systems, such as those that reduce the generosity of the benefits over time, require unemployed people receiving benefits to actively look for a job. Moreover, these unemployed receive advice from job centres and have better access to training. 

My comments: Finally, there is an official that does not want to reduce unemployment benefits and social benefits to the bare minimum, on which people can hardly live.

Finally Andor officially debunks the neoliberal dogma that decent benefits make people lazy and self-satisfied and that only order, discipline and ‘financial starvation’ can get people back to work.

I have nothing against the demand, that unemployment or social benefits should have goals and targets set in them. People, who live from a benefit should indeed invest their time and energy in acquiring a new job and not wait until they are unnegotiable for such a job.

However, lately it seemed sometimes – at least in The Netherlands – that every unemployed man or woman, living from unemployment benefits or welfare was an antisocial sponger. Someone, who should be treated with the utmost distrust and stringent supervision: a very small carrot and a very big stick:
  • Entrepreneurship was the standard in The Netherland;
  • Workers on the payroll were failed entrepreneurs: people without guts, who should not whine about their salary and secondary benefits;
  • People receiving welfare were lazy, socialist spongers, who should get their b*tts kicked, instead of being treated with respect and compassion.

It is good to read that at least commissioner László Andor thinks, that this attitude and behaviour against the unemployed was wrong. And that unemployed people should receive more understanding, training and guidance on their way to (hopefully) a new job.

And at least their time of being unemployed should be fruitful and satisfying, even when a new job is impossible at that moment. If you look for instance at the unemployment situation in Greece, Spain or the other PIIGS countries, then you understand that those 50-odd percent unemployed youngsters in Spain and 30-odd percent unemployed older workers in Greece don’t do this out of luxury, but because they really can’t get a job.

These people don’t deserve our scornful laughter, envy and anger, but our help, support and compassion.

Unemployment and economic misery in Spain: there are perhaps greenshoots, but the country has still a long, long way to go.

So it would seem we've still got a long long way to go, I know
I've heard all I wanna hear today

Yesterday, I wrote an article, named “The two faces of Italy”, about the Italian employment and unemployment and in particular, the regional differences between it.

After seeing the large, regional differences in Italy between particularly the southern part of the country and the rest of it, I became curious about another renowned problem area in the Euro-zone: Spain.

This country owns the dubious record of currently having the highest unemployment in whole Europe: even higher than Greece. 

The other dubious record is that almost six in ten youngsters are unemployed in Spain: a disgraceful average.

Tonight, as if it was meant to be, I watched an episode of Topgear on television that was probably recorded somewhere in the second half of 2012: in this episode the boys went to Spain with three ‘budget’ supercars.

While being on this journey, Clarkson, May and Hammond went through a number of Spanish ghost towns and deserted commercial areas: built, finished and totally ready for new inhabitants… who never came to these places after all. Although the episode was filled with the typical Topgear humour and bad jokes (albeit to a lesser degree than normally), the images of crisis-struck Spain made an enormous impression on me. 

Reading about a crisis with truly massive unemployment and despair is another thing than seeing it in real life…

A few weeks ago, I reported on this blog that Spain finally seemed to have found the way up and I am extremely pleased about that. Nevertheless, I know that the country has a long, long way to go on the path towards renewed prosperity.

This afternoon, before I had even read about Topgear in Spain, I had been wondering whether there were also such large regional differences within the unemployment in Spain, as there were in Italy.

In Italy, the southern part has been much more crisis-struck – in terms of soaring unemployment and loss of employment – than the Northern parts of the country. Would this also be the case in Spain?!

Well, the answer is ‘yes’ and ‘no’!

When it comes to unemployment among adults, there are clear regional differences. You can see this in the following charts, in which I show the three regions with the least and the three regions with the highest unemployment, with capital Madrid as ‘median’ value. All data is courtesy of the Instituto Nacional de Estadística from Spain:

Three regions with the lowest unemployment vs Madrid
Chart made by: Ernst's Economy for You
Data courtesy of: www.ine.es
Click to enlarge
The reason that the Balears (Ibiza, Menorca and Mallorca) have such enormous swings in unemployment, is that it is ‘all hands on deck’ on the islands during the summer months: the tourist industry simply needs almost all hands that it can get, causing a serious drop in unemployment during these months. During the winter months, however, the situation becomes precarious on the islands and unemployment rises by almost ten percent during this period.

In contrary to other touristic regions in Spain, it seems that the Balears kept their head up against particularly the Turkish all-in hotels.

The main reason for this is probably the world-famous nightlife and the unrestrained culture on the islands, which still attract loads of youngsters from Germany, Great Britain and The Netherlands.

Basque country in Spain is traditionally the Spanish region with the highest GDP, fueled by manufacturing industries, like the metal industry, the chemical industry and (shortly) the biotech industry. Also the services industry is very important in Basque Country. This favorable situation leads to the lowest unemployment in Spain.

Navarra, famous for its successful wine industry, is also the centre of the renewable energy in Europe, according to Wikipedia: the regions has several hundreds of windmills and about hundred hydraulic (i.e. water-powered) turbines.

Three regions with the highest unemployment vs Madrid
Chart made by: Ernst's Economy for You
Data courtesy of: www.ine.es
Click to enlarge
It is probably hardly a coincidence that two of the three regions with the highest unemployment, are also the regions with the hottest and dryest climate in Spain. Both regions have to deal with the ‘desertification’ of the landscape and temperatures that can rise up to 40 degrees centigrade in summer.

The Extremadura (i.e. ‘extremely tough’) region is the smallest economic region of Spain, as this part has only one million inhabitants. The region is aiming at developing an industry for renewable energy (particularly solar energy), but currently it still has to deal with massive unemployment.

Andalucia, also an extremely hot and dry region, with the famous Costa del Sol in the South, was traditionally an agricultural region, in which the soaring tourism also became very important. 

The region, however, had to deal with the upcoming touristic industry in Turkey – where Turkey’s massive hotels with all-inclusive formula became an instant sucess– and lost this battle until now.

The renewable energy industry and the agricultural and biotech industry although they brought massive growth in the years before the crisis  are yet not strong enough to save the economy of Andalucia from the loss of tourism.

And although the Canary Islands are increasingly important for the European Space Technology industry, due to their bright skies and favorable climate, their main driver is still the tourist industry. Also these islands have probably lost the battle with the Turkish all-in hotels; this probably caused the soaring unemployment on the islands.

Where the aforementioned charts with the adult unemployment in Spain are already alarming, nothing can prepare you for the mindboggling Spanish youth unemployment.

Mind you, the following chart contains the regions with the lowest (!) youth unemployment:

Three regions with the lowest youth unemployment vs Madrid
Chart made by: Ernst's Economy for You
Data courtesy of: www.ine.es
Click to enlarge

On this chart the Balears Islands are the region with the lowest youth unemployment: ‘only’ 33% during the summer months.

Basque country and Cantabria, the other two regions with the lowest youth unemployment still have respectively 42% and 47% of youth unemployment: already an outrageous number. Madrid – the governmental heart of Spain  has over 50% of youth unemployment.

And the following chart is probably one of the worst unemployment charts that you will ever see in your entire life:

Three regions with the highest youth unemployment vs Madrid
Chart made by: Ernst's Economy for You
Data courtesy of: www.ine.es
Click to enlarge
The three regions with the highest youth unemployment are the same regions that have the highest adult unemployment: Andalucia, Extremadura and the Canary Islands.

All three regions have a youth unemployment of over 61%: this is an utter disgrace for Spain and the European Union. 

That is the reason that I call the European leaders one more time to do something about this ‘scar of shame’: the Spanish youth unemployment! In the past I already called for a Marshall Plan for Southern Europe (in particular Spain, Greece and Portugal). 

Today, I do that once more!

Unfortunately, the European Union has until now followed the path of austerity and more austerity; this mindless path brought three of the PIIGS countries to their knees. 

This should change now! It is time that the governments of Spain, Greece and Portugal make decisive steps toward a succesful economic reconstruction of their economies. And the EU should help them with that, instead of hammering on austerity and fiscal prudence. There is no time for that now! 

If necessary, this economic reconstruction should perhaps happen at gunpoint from a European Commission, which should also undergo a paradigm shift: from mindless austerity towards rebuilding the economy! 

This must happen, before it is too late and a lost generation has emerged in Spain!

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