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Sunday, 14 August 2011

Import of counterfeit products in Greece is soaring since Chinese company is running terminal at port of Piraeus.

Some stories, even when they are a few days old,  are just too good to leave behind. This one I found, when I was browsing through some older newspapers. 

The Dutch financial newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad writes on August 1, a must-read article on counterfeit products coming from Greece. Here is a large summary of this (double) article:

A tidal wave of counterfeit products floods Europe via Greece  (Pt I) (link in Dutch)
The amount of imitation sunglasses, luxury bags and other counterfeit articles that sneaks past the Greek customs, is soaring. This is stated by Ron Veraart of TM Eye, a company that is searching for counterfeit products, under assignment of the large fashion chains. 
Veraart states that  the wave of counterfeit articles started, short after the Chinese shipping company Cosco took a participation in the port of Athens, Piraeus. Cosco manages one of two terminals there, since 2009. The transport company that doesn’t trade itself, has also a participation in the port of Thessaloniki, the second port of Greece. 
The Greek Economic and Fiscal Investigation Service (SDOE) and the police confiscated more than 2 mln counterfeit articles in 2010 and in the first half of 2011 already 3 mln. In the years before, this was about 300,000 articles per year. The increase can be partially declared by the fact that the investigation services work more efficiently. “But this doesn’t explain the enormous increase. On top of that you see more and more counterfeit articles on the street. There are just more counterfeit articles entering the country”, according to Veraart. 
Due to its stretched coastline and open borders with the rest of Europe, Greece is very attractive for smuggling. Figures of the European Commission show that Greek customs stops most counterfeit articles in Europe. Of all counterfeit articles, 85% comes from China. 
Chinese shipping company Cosco rejects firmly that there is a connection between its presence in Greece and the increase of counterfeit imports. ‘The increase is an international phenomena and cannot be blamed on one country, one industry or one company. Cosco endorses strongly the protection of trade mark laws. Eventually, the inspection of containers is a task of customs. 
I prefer following a street-hawker directly to a warehouse with counterfeit articles (pt II)
“There are two ways of discovering a depository for counterfeit goods”, according to Ron Veraart of TM Eye. Assigned by brand holders of international fashion chains, he searches from Athens to counterfeit shoes, glasses, perfumes and other fashion articles.“You can arrest a small shopkeeper in order to obtain information on his supplier, hoping to get at the source eventually. But I rather follow a Nigerian street-hawker directly to a warehouse”, Veraart states. “That is much quicker. If you walk through Athens, you meet a lot of street-hawkers”. 
When Veraart discovers a warehouse, he informs the police and the SDOE (see first article). “Then it is beyond my jurisdiction. At most, the police asks me to identify counterfeit goods, due to my expert knowledge`. 
Veraart works for more than five years as an independent entrepreneur in Athens, together with two free-lancers he contracts. The last two years, the amount of counterfeit articles on the Greek market soared. ´Until a few years ago, we found five or six large depositories in one year. This year alone, we discovered forty and another forty are scheduled´. Figures from the Greek SDOE and police confirm this picture. 
Not only 85% of the counterfeit articles is from China, also the depositories that Veraart finds are often in Chinese hands.A large share of the counterfeits enters via de port of Piraeus. `The sheer size of it and the amount of people that arrived there in summer, make this port vulnerable for fraud and smuggling´. This is stated in a report of the Bulgarian think tank CSD in 2009.´This smuggling is mainly concerning counterfeit articles, stolen cars, weapons, radioactive material (! – EL) and products where excise duties are levied, like cigarettes.´
I absolutely don´t want to accuse China of deliberately exporting counterfeit goods to Europe via Piraeus. However, the fact that 85% of all counterfeit products are produced in China and the fact that the imports of counterfeits in Greece soared, since a Chinese company took over a terminal in the Port of Piraeus, sheds China in an unfavorable light. 

European companies could get the idea that China is mainly paying lip service to trade mark protection and counterfeit surveying.

Another fact is that China is very busy with upgrading their network in Europe, via Portugal, Italy, Ireland and countries in Eastern Europe. 

Other ports, terminals, industrial zones and even highways were sponsored by China. Will these also be used for importing counterfeit articles?


I want to remind you of two older articles:

Without wanting to do mud-slinging towards China, I would urge the European Commission and the government leaders in Europe and the US to beware of the counterfeit wars.

The original brands invest a lot of time, money and craftsmanship into building brands, based on their good name, sometimes just to see it be thrown away by bad counterfeit products. And especially Italy and France have a substantial number of luxury brands that are vulnerable for counterfeiting: Gucci, Louis Vuitton, Brioni, Coco Chanel, Hermès, Cartier, you name it. Both countries that need every penny of income to keep head above water.


The same is true for the US that has an important brand in Apple: the same brand that saw the Chinese, counterfeit HiPhone V be brought to the market, even before it could launch its iPhone V.

And I want to remind you that also medicaments and specialty drugs (like Viagra) are counterfeited on a large scale. And exactly here, counterfeits can kill people.

Friday, 12 August 2011

When the oil market sneezes, Russia catches a cold: Why a falling oil price matters more for Russia than a falling Ruble.

Currently, there is a lot going on at the international stock exchanges; not only in Europe and the United States. Also in Russia, there have been some turmoil on the markets.
Last weekend, Russian newspapers were reporting on the quickly dropping exchange rate of the Russian ruble. The following snips are from the Russian online newspaper www.RBCdaily.ru and these are translated by Google and edited by me.

Experts say that there is still much room for the ruble to devaluate

On Friday, the market is not only selling the full range of stocks, but also large amounts of rubles that were in hands of foreign investors. According to analysts, the ruble is poised to continue to decline against foreign currencies. 
This Friday, trade in the MICEX currency section showed a true exodus of the ruble.

Sales of the Russian currency are hot, because investors are abandoning risky assets at a massive scale: first, capital flowed out of the equity markets, then out of oil futures, and at last out of the ruble.

As a result, the official dollar rate set by the Bank of Russia today, for the first time in two weeks, crossed the bar for 28 rubles to stop at 28.338 RUR / USD, a rise of more than 50 kopecks (Russian cent). This was a bigger increase than during last week in total.

Also the exchange rate of the Euro rose to 40.10 RUR / EUR. However, the official exchange rate ended just under 40RUR/EUR: 39.9625 RUB / EUR.

"The current exchange rate of the dollar is advantageous for exporters, but we can not rule out further weakening of the ruble, due to the growing uncertainty in the world markets and the falling prices for commodities", according to analysts of VTB Capital.

Head of Treasury of the Russian bank Metalinvestbanka, Selim Agarzaev said that the market volatility has increased, largely due to massive selling of the ruble by non-residents of Russia. But, according to Agarzaev, the ruble is still very strong. Perhaps it would even be useful when the economy weakens slightly. "The market situation is not catastrophic yet, but that might be so if the oil prices would further drop," said the expert.

Although Russia is a member of the BRIC-countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China), that are considered to be economically strong, it is different from the other BRIC’s.

It’s manufacturing industry, (financial) services industry and the economy as a whole are lagging, compared to the other BRIC-countries. The only industries that are clearly flourishing are the oil and gas industry and the exploitation of precious metals and other commodities. This makes that there is a very strong correlation between oil prices and Russian wealth.On top of that, Russia was the largest oil exporter in the world in 2010, according to Bloomberg, larger even than Saudi-Arabia:


Russian Oil Output Hits Post-Soviet Record in 2010

Russia, the world’s largest oil producer, set a post-Soviet record for yearly crude output in 2010, even as the country’s production in December slipped from the previous month.
Russian output last year rose 2.2 percent to 10.15 million barrels a day, the highest annual average since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK statistics unit said in a statement today. Russia produced 9.93 million barrels a day in 2009.
Output in December fell 0.6 percent to 10.18 million barrels a day compared with 10.24 million barrels a day in the previous month, according to the statistics. By comparison, Saudi Arabia produced 8.25 million barrels a day in December.
OAO Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, began pumping in August from the Siberian Vankor deposit, the country’s largest new project. Rosneft’s Vankor unit produced over 255,000 barrels a day in December, the ministry’s statistics unit said. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Oct. 28 in the central city of Samara that Russia can produce 10 million barrels a day for at least a decade.
In the Soviet-era, Russian crude output peaked in 1987 at 11.48 million barrels a day, according to BP Plc data.
Therefore the expert of Metalinvestbanka, Selim Agarzaev, is totally right: a further, limited weakening of the ruble is not very problematic, but further dropping oil prices are.

To show you how problematic these dropping oil prices could be for Russian GDP, I took a YTD chart on WTI Crude and multiplied the 2010 Russian production of 10,15 mln barrels with the four price levels that I point out in this chart.

Doing this, I understand that price levels are never stable and I use these therefore only for demonstration purposes.

Chart courtesy of www.ycharts.com: click to enlarge



It becomes clear from this calculation that the difference between the highest and lowest oil price in 2011 is a theoretical yearly revenue of $126 bln. And it becomes also clear that when the oil price structurally drops under $79,32, Russia has a serious revenue problem.

Therefore you could say that when the oil market sneezes, Russia catches a serious cold.

The European economy is ill, but it ought not to be. So, let’s kill the doctor that exposed the disease. Or, why banning short selling is a ridiculous measure.


We been broken down
the lowest turn
and been on the bottom line
sure ain't no fun
Hold on, Hold on, Hold on
The only way is up

Unfortunately, there are still people in Europe that think that ´the only way is up´ for the stock exchanges. And those people believe that the economy is good when all stock rates are rising, or at least when stock rates are rising.  

An objective observer could rebut that:
·     European consumption is lagging, even in the currently healthy Euro-zone countries, like The Netherlands and Germany.
·     Unemployment in the PIIGS-zone (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) varies from substantial to horrific.
·     The Italian debt rises to intolerable levels of €1.9 trn.
·     The exposure of banks all over Europe to sovereign bonds of the PIIGS-countries is sometimes gruesome.
·     The French economic growth imitates a donut.
·     The slightest rumour on (say) Societé General Bank could lead to an exchange rate-drop of 14% for this stock in one day.
·     And last, but not least: the Euro-zone finance ministers and government leaders showed on numerous occasions that they didn’t have the slightest answer to the Euro-crisis.
o    Instead, they asked the financial markets to go to sleep until September, when their decision making process starts all over again.

Summarizing: the European economy is ill. Seriously ill. But the European economy ought not to be ill. It can’t be. Because, if the European economy is ill, this might be the end of the Euro, as we know it.

I can only look in the light of these thoughts to the decision of Italy, France, Belgium and Spain to put a temporary ban on short-selling, aimed especially at protecting the financials in those countries.

Two days ago, I was a ‘witness’ via Twitter, when a false (?) rumour on Societé Generale seemingly led to a collapse of the exchange rate by 14%. The next day the stock recovered by 5.25%, but the damage was done. The total loss of this week for the stock was uptil now 16.5%.  

To put things straight: I think that spreading false rumours on single stocks in order to make them rise or drop, is a crime that should be punished substantially in the court of law.

But the question is, of course: Is all this financial misery of the last weeks caused by short-selling, due to rumours? Or is there something more structurally wrong with financials like SocGen?

Let’s therefore look at the performance of a number of large bank stocks including SocGen, since July 1st, when the last true peak appeared in banking stocks:

Bank
Performance, since July, 1st
Societé Generale (France)
-/- 45%
ING Bank NV (Netherlands)
-/- 33%
Deutsche Bank (Germany)
-/- 30%
Credit Agricole (France)
-/- 41%
Banco Santander (Spain)
-/- 25%

This has seemingly nothing to do with rumour-based short-selling, but it has everything to do with the financial and economical sickness of Europe and the lack of political will-power to do something about it.

And it has a lot to do with the exposure of these banks to sovereign bonds of all European countries and the growing distrust of the financial markets in these bonds.

But still, the decision makers think that the only way for the stock exchange is up, as rising stock rates supply ‘deniability’ for the financial problems in Europe. Their solution? Shoot the bears and kill the short-selling doctors that exposed the fragility and sickness of the patient, called Europe.

But will this bull-bazooka help the financials to find their way up again? I seriously doubt that: no financial problem, concerning the Euro-zone and the exposure of large, European banks to PIIGS-sovereigns, is solved yet. And there is yet no political will, to solve things quickly (i.e. before September). And the bears, with their well-developed noses for trouble, have sniffed that really good.

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