Dear Theresa,
I am Ernst Labruyère from The Netherlands and I have
some well-meant advice for you.
I closely follow the political and economic situation
in your country via the newspapers and news bulletins. What I see is that you
are stuck between the proverbial rock and the hard place. You are in a
situation in which you simply can’t win. There is hardly a way out in which you keep
your dignity and credibility as a political leader, so the best that I can
offer is damage control.
In other words: you can count your blessings and go for
the least bad option of the options that you have currently. As a matter of fact, you have three options and none of them is easy:
- You
swallow the enormous lump in your throat and withdraw totally from the Brexit plans,
as they sit. As the European Court of Justice informed you last week, you can still
withdraw unilaterally from the Article 50 status and become a full member of
the EU again. No questions asked!
It will yield you the eternal hate from the Brexiteers in your Tory party and from a considerable part of the people in your country England. All the other citizens in England (mostly youngsters), as well as strong majorities in Wales and especially Scotland and North-Ireland will put you on a pedestal for such a brave decision.
Brexit = Brexit = Road to Nowhere.
It takes a brave person to withdraw from a bad decision! And that the Brexit was a bad decision is becoming more and more clear to me and probably to you too.
Opinions in the EU will be divided over your possible happy return. My country – The Netherlands – and Germany will probably be very happy and would soon return to business as usual, regarding imports of financial services and exports of goods and agricultural produce.
Other countries would still have their reserves and think about the lost decade, due to the sheer impossibilty of pushing through new legislation and safety nets for the Eurozone, with you and David Cameron at the helm of the British representation in the European Council.
And people like me would remember your utterly reckless and ignorant attitude towards the referendum and the Brexit from the EU, as well as the post-Brexit period. The leadership of your country took an enormous gamble and it blew up in your face enormously.
Whatever will happen in this situation: the times of the special deals for the UK would be over for a long time and the established, structural distrust of the other EU members towards you would be hard to overcome. Nevertheless, it would be perhaps the best option, as you would keep the numerous special privileges that an EU membership offers, against only a few serious drawbacks.
- You
run the gauntlet and go for the No Deal-Brexit. You would be applauded and
hailed by the hardliners in your Tory party and numerous, mostly elderly people all over the country. However, a substantial part of the
people in your country would probably buy voodoo dolls and try to steal a few of
your hairs. In Europe we would all think that the UK had gone berserk!
I will not predict societal and economic havoc after the choice for this option, as I simply don’t know what will happen. I trust the EU to take care of a soft-ish landing of the UK, as it is in their interest too to let things not get out of hand.
However, you will probably find out that your country is on its own in a difficult and unknown economic and political situation. New, mutually profitable trade deals are not a walk in the park, when it comes to negotiations with countries like the United States and China, as well as your new partners of the EU.
That you will have lost influence on future EU legislation is for sure and it will definitely not be as easy to totally stop immigration to your country, as you might think now.
On top of that, you must find a solution for the 1.8 million of your countrymen and women who are now living all over the EU. They will also demand answers from you. We won’t call them immigrants and queue jumpers, as you did to EU citizens, but we probably can’t warrant automatically that they can stay in the EU as long as they want. Brexit = Brexit, y'know?!
And probably you will find out that the good old European Union had substantial advantages and many things on offer that you only start to appreciate now that they are gone. Ignorance is bliss, but it mostly can’t last forever.
Last, but not least: the situation around Northern Ireland could deteriorate easily, when new disputes and conflicts arise concerning the new border with the EU. A border that will lie at the old border with Ireland and prevent from free, unhampered trade between the Catholic part of Northern Ireland and Ireland itself. Yet, I don’t think that we will return to the old civil war-like situation, as too many people probably appreciate the current peace and quiet. But nevertheless, it remains a gamble!
Whatever happens, your political career is over then. But it will probably also be over with the other two options. And something tells me that you would not mind that very much. - And
there is finally the third option: you return to your parliament and tell them
that this is the deal they get for their Brexit from the EU! Take it or leave it!
There might be some negotations about more or less cherries and whipped cream on the Brexit cake, but the form, ingredients and flavour will not change anymore. It is what it is!
Although some people, like PM Mark Rutte of The Netherlands, might give you the impression that there is a pinch of room for further negotiations between the European Union and the United Kingdom, there is in fact not a micron of room in the Brexit deal, as it sits.
The bravest thing that you can do is tell the likes of Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and Jacob Rees-Mogg that this is it and that there is the chance of a snowball in hell that things will change in their favour! And that you strongly advice them to accept this deal, or face the harsh consequences of a No Deal-Brexit. I count on you!
Do me a favour and please think about the British citizens outside Whitehall, who don’t have an Oxbridge education and an estate to live from...
People who have been lied to by your utterly questionable and deceitful press and your politicians, like the earlier mentioned Boris Johnson. And people that might face years of mass unemployment and economic hardship, when there is no viable deal with the European Union or with anybody else in the world. These British citizens are depending on you and your deal. And also the 1.8 million people living abroad.
If you ever saw the film Brassed Off, you are aware of what the poverty and hardship was that came out of the policy and politics of your predecessor Margareth Thatcher in the Eighties of last century.
A period in which the pride and self-confidence of the United Kingdom and its citizens was stripped to the bone. Things could even become worse than in that period of time, when the economic situation really gets out of hand after a No Deal-Brexit. That won't hurt Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, but it will hurt the people in Liverpool, Manchester, Londonderry and Glasgow…
But whatever you do: time is running out for you and
your Brexit team to make that decision! Do it now!!! You can’t postpone things until eternity! In March,
2019, the two-year period of the Article 50 will have passed and will leave you
with a No Deal Brexit, that only the most reckless politicians in your country want.
I wish you much wisdom and good judgement with your
decision...
But please, please, please don’t believe in the eternal patience, benevolence and/or stupidity of the other 27 countries of the European Union.
Everybody in the European Union is really sick and tired of the way that your
country has been hijacking all decision-making for the last 4 years, since
David Cameron announced his dreaded Brexit referendum.
The other countries’ patience with your situation has run
out a long time ago and they want it to be over with foregood. Don’t disappoint them,
as they can hurt you really bad economically, when their compassion with your country is gone and their anger is mounting!!
Don’t ponder about your past role as
a great empire anymore, as those days are gone forever. Just make the final decision and defend it with all
your energy in front of the Lords and the Commons!
Yours sincerely,
Ernst
